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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS)

Dynamic risk simulation to assess natural hazards risk along roadsNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2763-2777, 2013Author(s): J. Voumard, O. Caspar, M.-H. Derron, and M. JaboyedoffRisk generated by natural hazards on roads is usually calculated with
equations integrating various parameters related to hazard and traffic.
These are static variables, like an average number of vehicles crossing this
section every day and an average vehicle speed. This methodology cannot take
into account dynamic variations of traffic and interactions between vehicles
such as speed modifications due to windy roads, slowdowns resulting from
saturated traffic or vehicle tailbacks forming in front of traffic lights.

Here we show, by means of a dynamic traffic simulator, that traffic
variations may greatly influence the risk estimation over time. The risk is
analysed on several sections of an Alpine road in Switzerland using a
dynamic vehicles approach, and compared with the results of the static
methodology. It demonstrates that risk can significantly increase on sinuous
sections because of decreasing vehicle speed. For example, along an 800 m-long section of road containing two hairpin bends, the dynamic risk is about
50% higher than the static one. Badly placed signalization, slowing down,
or stopping the vehicles in a hazardous area may increase the risk by about
150% (i.e. 2.5 times higher) along a straight road section where vehicles
speed is high.

A more realistic risk can thus be obtained from a dynamic approach,
especially on mountain roads. The dynamic traffic simulator developed for
this work appears to be a helpful tool to support decision-making in
reducing risk on mountain roads and it shows the importance of keeping the
traffic moving as freely as possible. 2013/11/06 - 20:06

Using volunteered geographical information to map the November 2012 floods in SloveniaNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2753-2762, 2013Author(s): M. Triglav-Čekada and D. RadovanVolunteered geographical information represents a promising field in the
monitoring and mapping of natural disasters. The contributors of volunteered
geographical information have the advantage that they are at the location of
the natural disaster at exactly the time when the disaster happened.
Therefore, they can provide the most complete account of the extent of the
damage. This is not always possible when applying photogrammetric or
remote-sensing methods, as prior to the data acquisition an order to carry
out the measurements has to be made. On 5 and 6 November 2012 almost half of
Slovenia was badly affected by floods. The gathering of volunteered
geographical information in the form of images and videos of these floods is
presented. Two strategies were used: (1) a public call for volunteered
contributions and (2) a web search for useful images and their authors. The
authorship of these images was verified with every contributor. In total, 15
contributors provided 102 terrestrial and aerial images and one aerial video,
with 45% classified as potentially useful. For actual flood mapping 22
images and 12 sequences from video were used. With the help of the
volunteered images 12% of the most severely affected river sections were
mapped. Altogether, 1195.3 ha of flooded areas outside of the usual
river beds along a total river length of 48 km were mapped. The
results are compared with those from satellite mapping of the same floods,
which successfully covered 18% of the most affected river sections. 2013/11/06 - 20:06

Resonance phenomena at the long wave run-up on the coastNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2745-2752, 2013Author(s): A. Ezersky, D. Tiguercha, and E. PelinovskyRun-up of long waves on a beach consisting of three pieces of constant but
different slopes is studied. Linear shallow-water theory is used for incoming
impulse evolution, and nonlinear corrections are obtained for the run-up
stage. It is demonstrated that bottom profile influences the run-up
characteristics and can lead to resonance effects: increase of wave height,
particle velocity, and number of oscillations. Simple parameterization of
tsunami source through an earthquake magnitude is used to calculate the
run-up height versus earthquake magnitude. It is shown that resonance effects
lead to the sufficient increase of run-up heights for the weakest
earthquakes, and a tsunami wave does not break on chosen bottom relief if the
earthquake magnitude does not exceed 7.8. 2013/11/06 - 20:06

Temporary seismic monitoring of the Sulmona area (Abruzzo, Italy): a quality study of microearthquake locationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2727-2744, 2013Author(s): M. A. Romano, R. de Nardis, M. Garbin, L. Peruzza, E. Priolo, G. Lavecchia, and M. RomanelliThanks to the installation of a temporary seismic network, a microseismicity
study has been conducted in the Sulmona area (Abruzzo, Italy) with the aim
of increasing the knowledge of seismogenic potential of existing active
faults. In this work the first 7 months (from 27 May to 31 December
2009) of recorded data have been analysed over a total period of
acquisition of about 30 months. Using a semi-automatic procedure, more than
800 local earthquakes have been detected, which highlights the previously unknown background
seismicity. About 70% of these events have been
relocated using a 1-D velocity model estimated specifically for the Sulmona
area. The integration of temporary network data with all the other data
available in the region enables us to obtain a statistically more robust
data set of earthquake locations. Both the final hypocentral solutions and
phase pickings are released as a supplement; an appendix also
describes phase readings' quality with respect to weighting schemes used by
location algorithms. Local magnitude values of the newly detected
events range between −1.5 and 3.7 and the completeness magnitude for the
Sulmona area during the study period is about 1.1. Duration magnitude
coefficients have been estimated as well for comparison/integration
purposes. The local Gutenberg–Richter relationship, estimated from the
microseismic data, features a low b value, tentatively suggesting that the
Sulmona area may be currently undergoing high-stress conditions, in
agreement with other recent studies. The time–space distribution of the
seismic activity with respect to the known active faults as well the
seismogenic layer thickness are preliminarily investigated. 2013/11/06 - 20:06

The role of GIS in urban seismic risk studies: application to the city of Almería (southern Spain)Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2717-2725, 2013Author(s): A. Rivas-Medina, J. M. Gaspar-Escribano, B. Benito, and M. A. BernabéThis work describes the structure and characteristics of the geographic
information system (GIS) developed for the urban seismic risk study of the
city of Almería (southern Spain), identifying the stages in which the
use of this tool proved to be very beneficial for adopting informed decisions
throughout the execution of the work.

After the completion of the regional emergency plans for seismic risk in
Spain and its subsequent approval by the National Civil Defence Commission,
the municipalities that need to develop specific local seismic risk plans
have been identified. Hence, the next action is to develop urban seismic
risk analyses at a proper scale (Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation – Risk-UR).

For this evaluation, different factors influencing seismic risk such as
seismic hazard, geotechnical soil characteristics, vulnerability of
structures of the region, reparation costs of damaged buildings and exposed
population are combined. All these variables are gathered and analysed
within a GIS and subsequently used for seismic risk estimation. The GIS
constitutes a highly useful working tool because it facilitates data
interoperability, making the great volume of information required and the
numerous processes that take part in the calculations easier to handle,
speeding up the analysis and the interpretation and presentation of the
results of the different working phases.

The result of this study is based on a great set of variables that provide a
comprehensive view of the urban seismic risk, such as the damage
distribution of buildings and dwellings of different typologies, the mean
damage and the number of uninhabitable buildings for the expected seismic
motion, the number of dead and injured at different times of the day, the
cost of reconstruction and repair of buildings, among others. These results
are intended for interpretation and decision making in emergency management
by unspecialised users (Civil Defence technicians and managers). 2013/11/06 - 20:06

Resilience and disaster risk reduction: an etymological journeyNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2707-2716, 2013Author(s): D. E. AlexanderThis paper examines the development over historical time of the meaning and
uses of the term resilience. The objective is to deepen our understanding of
how the term came to be adopted in disaster risk reduction and resolve some
of the conflicts and controversies that have arisen when it has been used.
The paper traces the development of resilience through the sciences,
humanities, and legal and political spheres. It considers how mechanics
passed the word to ecology and psychology, and how from there it was adopted
by social research and sustainability science. As other authors have noted,
as a concept, resilience involves some potentially serious conflicts or
contradictions, for example between stability and dynamism, or between
dynamic equilibrium (homeostasis) and evolution. Moreover, although the
resilience concept works quite well within the confines of general systems
theory, in situations in which a systems formulation inhibits rather than
fosters explanation, a different interpretation of the term is warranted.
This may be the case for disaster risk reduction, which involves
transformation rather than preservation of the "state of the system". The
article concludes that the modern conception of resilience derives benefit
from a rich history of meanings and applications, but that it is
dangerous – or at least potentially disappointing – to read to much into the
term as a model and a paradigm. 2013/11/06 - 20:06

Definition and impact of a quality index for radar-based reference measurements in the H-SAF precipitation product validationNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2695-2705, 2013Author(s): A. Rinollo, G. Vulpiani, S. Puca, P. Pagliara, J. Kaňák, E. Lábó, L'. Okon, E. Roulin, P. Baguis, E. Cattani, S. Laviola, and V. LevizzaniThe EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational
Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) provides rainfall estimations based
on infrared and microwave satellite sensors on board polar and geostationary
satellites. The validation of these satellite estimations is performed
by the H-SAF Precipitation Product Validation Group (PPVG). A common validation
methodology has been defined inside the PPVG in order to make validation
results from several institutes comparable and understandable.

The validation of the PR-OBS-3 (blended infrared–microwave (IR–MW) instantaneous rainfall
estimation) product using radar-based rainfall estimations as ground
reference is described herein. A network of C-band and Ka-band radars
throughout Europe ensures a wide area coverage with different orographic
configurations and climatological regimes, but the definition of a quality
control protocol for obtaining consistent ground precipitation fields across
several countries is required.

Among the hydro-meteorological community, the evaluation of the data quality
is a quite consolidated practice, even though a unique definition of a
common evaluation methodology between different countries and institutions
has not been set up yet.

Inside H-SAF, the first definition of the quality index of the radar
rainfall observations has been introduced at the Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC). In the evaluation of the DPC quality index, several
parameters are considered, some measured by the radar itself (static clutter
map, range distance, radial velocity, texture of differential reflectivity,
texture of co-polar correlation coefficient and texture of differential
phase shift) and some obtained by external sources (digital elevation model,
freezing layer height). In some cases, corrections were applied for clutter
and beam blocking.

The DPC quality index was calculated and applied to some relevant
meteorological events reported by a radar test site in Italy. The
precipitation field derived by radar data was compared with the PR-OBS-3
precipitation product, with varying thresholds of quality index: the impact
of the introduction of the quality index defined on the statistical results
of the satellite product validation as well as their sensitivity to the threshold
choice were thus evaluated. Results show that PR-RMSE (a relative RMSE here
introduced) is reduced from values between 2.5 and 3 to values around 1 when
the quality threshold is increased from 0 (no threshold) to 0.8. Fractional
standard error also decreases, from values around 2 to values around 1.5 in
the same span of the quality threshold. 2013/10/28 - 15:16

Direct and indirect economic impacts of drought in the agri-food sector in the Ebro River basin (Spain)Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2679-2694, 2013Author(s): M. Gil, A. Garrido, and N. Hernández-MoraThe economic evaluation of drought impacts is essential in order to define
efficient and sustainable management and mitigation strategies. The aim of
this study is to evaluate the economic impacts of a drought event on the
agricultural sector and measure how they are transmitted from primary
production to industrial output and related employment. We fit econometric
models to determine the magnitude of the economic loss attributable to water
storage. The direct impacts of drought on agricultural productivity are
measured through a direct attribution model. Indirect impacts on agricultural
employment and the agri-food industry are evaluated through a nested indirect
attribution model. The transmission of water scarcity effects from
agricultural production to macroeconomic variables is measured through
chained elasticities. The models allow for differentiating the impacts
deriving from water scarcity from other sources of economic losses. Results
show that the importance of drought impacts are less relevant at the
macroeconomic level, but are more significant for those activities directly
dependent on water abstractions and precipitation. From a management
perspective, implications of these findings are important to develop
effective mitigation strategies to reduce drought risk exposure. 2013/10/28 - 15:16

Preface "Natural hazard resilient cities"Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2675-2678, 2013Author(s): D. Serre and B. Barroca 2013/10/24 - 20:19

Experiences from site-specific landslide early warning systemsNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2659-2673, 2013Author(s): C. Michoud, S. Bazin, L. H. Blikra, M.-H. Derron, and M. JaboyedoffLandslide early warning systems (EWSs) have to be implemented in areas with
large risk for populations or infrastructures when classical structural
remediation measures cannot be set up. This paper aims to gather experiences
of existing landslide EWSs, with a special focus on practical requirements
(e.g., alarm threshold values have to take into account the smallest detectable
signal levels of deployed sensors before being established) and specific
issues when dealing with system implementations. Within the framework of the
SafeLand European project, a questionnaire was sent to about one-hundred
institutions in charge of landslide management. Finally, we interpreted
answers from experts belonging to 14 operational units related to 23
monitored landslides. Although no standard requirements exist for designing
and operating EWSs, this review highlights some key elements, such as the
importance of pre-investigation work, the redundancy and robustness of
monitoring systems, the establishment of different scenarios adapted to
gradual increasing of alert levels, and the necessity of confidence and
trust between local populations and scientists. Moreover, it also confirms
the need to improve our capabilities for failure forecasting, monitoring
techniques and integration of water processes into landslide conceptual
models. 2013/10/23 - 17:30

A first-order second-moment calculation for seismic hazard assessment with the consideration of uncertain magnitude conversionNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2649-2657, 2013Author(s): J. P. Wang, X. Yun, and Y.-M. WuEarthquake size can be described with different magnitudes
for different purposes. For example, local magnitude ML is usually
adopted to compile an earthquake catalog, and moment magnitude Mw is
often prescribed by a ground motion model. Understandably, when inconsistent
units are encountered in an earthquake analysis, magnitude conversion needs
to be performed beforehand. However, the conversion is not expected at full
certainty owing to the model error of empirical relationships. This paper
introduces a novel first-order second-moment (FOSM) calculation to estimate
the annual rate of earthquake motion (or seismic hazard) on a probabilistic
basis, including the consideration of the uncertain magnitude conversion and
three other sources of earthquake uncertainties. In addition to the
methodology, this novel FOSM application to engineering seismology is
demonstrated in this paper with a case study. With a local ground motion
model, magnitude conversion relationship and earthquake catalog, the
analysis shows that the best-estimate annual rate of peak ground acceleration (PGA) greater than
0.18 g
(induced by earthquakes) is 0.002 per year at a site in Taipei, given the
uncertainties of magnitude conversion, earthquake size, earthquake location,
and motion attenuation. 2013/10/23 - 17:30

A preliminary evaluation of surface latent heat flux as an earthquake precursorNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2639-2647, 2013Author(s): W. Zhang, J. Zhao, W. Wang, H. Ren, L. Chen, and G. YanThe relationship between variations in surface latent heat
flux (SLHF) and marine earthquakes has been a popular subject of recent
seismological studies. So far, there are two key problems: how to identify
the abnormal SLHF variations from complicated background signals, and how to
ensure that the anomaly results from an earthquake. In this paper, we proposed
four adjustable parameters for identification, classified the relationship
and analyzed SLHF changes several months before six marine earthquakes by
employing daily SLHF data. Additionally, we also quantitatively evaluate the
long-term relationship between earthquakes and SLHF anomalies for the six
study areas over a 20 yr period preceding each earthquake. The results
suggest the following: (1) before the South Sandwich Islands, Papua, Samoa and Haiti
earthquakes, the SLHF variations above their individual background levels
have relatively low amplitudes and are difficult to be considered as
precursory anomalies; (2) after removing the clustering effect, most of the
anomalies prior to these six earthquakes are not temporally related to any
earthquake in each study area in time sequence; (3) for each case, apart from
Haiti, more than half of the studied earthquakes, which were moderate and even
devastating earthquakes (larger than Mw = 5.3), had no precursory variations in
SLHF; and (4) the correlation between SLHF and seismic activity depends
largely on data accuracy and parameter settings. Before any application of
SLHF data on earthquake prediction, we suggest that anomaly-identifying
standards should be established based on long-term regional analysis to
eliminate subjectivity. Furthermore, other factors that may result in SLHF
variations should also be carefully considered. 2013/10/23 - 17:30

The price of safety: costs for mitigating and coping with Alpine hazardsNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2619-2637, 2013Author(s): C. Pfurtscheller and A. H. ThiekenDue to limited public budgets and the need to economize, the analysis of
costs of hazard mitigation and emergency management of natural hazards
becomes increasingly important for public natural hazard and risk management.
In recent years there has been a growing body of literature on the estimation
of losses which supported to help to determine benefits of measures in terms
of prevented losses. On the contrary, the costs of mitigation are hardly
addressed. This paper thus aims to shed some light on expenses for mitigation
and emergency services. For this, we analysed the annual costs of mitigation
efforts in four regions/countries of the Alpine Arc: Bavaria (Germany), Tyrol
(Austria), South Tyrol (Italy) and Switzerland. On the basis of PPP values
(purchasing power parities), annual expenses on public safety ranged from
EUR 44 per capita in the Free State of Bavaria to EUR 216 in the Autonomous
Province of South Tyrol. To analyse the (variable) costs for emergency
services in case of an event, we used detailed data from the 2005 floods in
the Federal State of Tyrol (Austria) as well as aggregated data from the 2002
floods in Germany. The analysis revealed that multi-hazards, the occurrence
and intermixture of different natural hazard processes, contribute to
increasing emergency costs. Based on these findings, research gaps and
recommendations for costing Alpine natural hazards are discussed. 2013/10/23 - 17:30

Precursory pattern of tidal triggering of earthquakes in six regions of China: the possible relation to the crustal heterogeneityNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2605-2618, 2013Author(s): Q. Li and G.-M. XuWe found the possible correlation between the precursory pattern of tidal
triggering of earthquakes and the crustal heterogeneities, which is of
particular importance to the researchers in earthquake prediction and
earthquake hazard prevention. We investigated the connection between the
tidal variations and earthquake occurrence in the Liyang, Wunansha,
Cangshan, Wenan, Luquan and Yaoan regions of China. Most of the regions show
a higher correlation with tidal triggering in several years preceding the
large or destructive earthquakes compared to other times, indicating that
the tidal triggering may inherently relate to the nucleation of the
destructive earthquakes during this time. In addition, the analysis results
indicate that the Liyang, Cangshan and Luquan regions, with stronger
heterogeneity, show statistically significant effects of tidal triggering
preceding the large or destructive earthquakes, while the Wunansha, Wenan
and Yaoan regions, with relatively weak heterogeneity, show statistically
insignificant effects of it, signifying that the precursory pattern of tidal
triggering of earthquakes in these six regions is possibly related to the
heterogeneities of the crustal rocks. The above results suggest that when
people try to find the potential earthquake hazardous areas or make
middle–long-term earthquake forecasting by means of precursory pattern of
the tidal triggering, the crustal heterogeneity in these areas has to be
taken into consideration for the purpose of increasing the prediction
efficiency. If they do not consider the influence of crustal heterogeneity
on the tidal triggering of earthquakes, the prediction efficiency might
greatly decrease. 2013/10/18 - 19:03

Preface "Weather-related hazards and risks in agriculture"Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2599-2603, 2013Author(s): A. Gobin, A. M. Tarquis, and N. R. Dalezios 2013/10/18 - 19:03

Investigation of superstorm Sandy 2012 in a multi-disciplinary approachNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2579-2598, 2013Author(s): M. Kunz, B. Mühr, T. Kunz-Plapp, J. E. Daniell, B. Khazai, F. Wenzel, M. Vannieuwenhuyse, T. Comes, F. Elmer, K. Schröter, J. Fohringer, T. Münzberg, C. Lucas, and J. ZschauAt the end of October 2012, Hurricane Sandy moved from the Caribbean Sea
into the Atlantic Ocean and entered the United States not far from New York.
Along its track, Sandy caused more than 200 fatalities and severe losses in
Jamaica, The Bahamas, Haiti, Cuba, and the US. This paper demonstrates the
capability and potential for near-real-time analysis of catastrophes.

It is shown that the impact of Sandy was driven by the superposition of
different extremes (high wind speeds, storm surge, heavy precipitation) and
by cascading effects. In particular the interaction between Sandy and an
extra-tropical weather system created a huge storm that affected large areas
in the US. It is examined how Sandy compares to historic hurricane events,
both from a hydro-meteorological and impact perspective.

The distribution of losses to different sectors of the economy is calculated
with simple input-output models as well as government estimates. Direct
economic losses are estimated about USD 4.2 billion in the Caribbean and
between USD 78 and 97 billion in the US. Indirect economic losses from power
outages is estimated in the order of USD 16.3 billion. Modelling
sector-specific dependencies quantifies total business interruption losses
between USD 10.8 and 15.5 billion. Thus, seven years after the record
impact of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Hurricane Sandy is the second costliest
hurricane in the history of the United States. 2013/10/18 - 19:03

Effects of relative density and accumulated shear strain on post-liquefaction residual deformationNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2567-2577, 2013Author(s): J. Kim, M. Kazama, and Y. KwonThe damage caused by liquefaction, which occurs following an earthquake, is
usually because of settlement and lateral spreading. Generally, the
evaluation of liquefaction has been centered on settlement, that is,
residual volumetric strain. However, in actual soil, residual shear and
residual volumetric deformations occur simultaneously after an earthquake.
Therefore, the simultaneous evaluation of the two phenomena and the
clarification of their relationship are likely to evaluate post-liquefaction
soil behaviors more accurately. Hence, a quantitative evaluation of
post-liquefaction damage will also be possible. In this study, the effects
of relative density and accumulated shear strain on post-liquefaction
residual deformations were reviewed through a series of lateral
constrained-control hollow cylindrical torsion tests under undrained
conditions. In order to identify the relationship between residual shear and
residual volumetric strains, this study proposed a new test method that
integrates monotonic loading after cyclic loading, and K0-drain after
cyclic loading – in other words, the combination of cyclic loading, monotonic
loading, and the K0 drain. In addition, a control that maintained the
lateral constrained condition across all the processes of consolidation,
cyclic loading, monotonic loading, and drainage was used to reproduce the
anisotropy of in situ ground. This lateral constrain control was performed
by controlling the axial strain, based on the assumption that under
undrained conditions, axial and lateral strains occur simultaneously, and
unless axial strain occurs, lateral strain does not occur. The test results
confirmed that the recovery of effective stresses, which occur during
monotonic loading and drainage after cyclic loading, respectively, result
from mutually different structural restoration characteristics. In addition,
in the ranges of 40–60% relative density and
50–100% accumulated shear strain, relative density was
found to have greater effects than the number of cycles (accumulated shear
strain). 2013/10/18 - 19:03

Challenges to social capacity building in flood-affected areas of southern PolandNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2555-2566, 2013Author(s): J. Działek, W. Biernacki, and A. BokwaVarious aspects of beliefs, behaviour and expectations of at-risk populations
were analysed in four case study localities in southern Poland that were
affected by flooding in 1997 and 2001. They represent localities of
different sizes and are characterised by different paths of historical
development. Two of them are deep-rooted communities with dense, strong
family and neighbourhood ties, while the other two experienced an almost total
replacement of their population due to decisions taken after World War II
and still suffer from less developed social networks. Historical events also
resulted in the disruption of local memories of flooding and transmission of
knowledge about natural hazards. A questionnaire survey was conducted in late
autumn 2006, followed by structured telephone interviews and focus group
interviews in spring 2008. The results of the survey and interviews were
analysed with reference to the social capacity framework and its five
dimensions: knowledge, motivational, network, economic and governance
capacities. Network capacities, that is resources of bonding and bridging
social capital, were considered a key notion when analysing and interpreting
the results. The differences in the local resources and abilities available
in each of the localities to prepare a response to natural hazards were
revealed. Consequently, challenges faced in the process of building and
strengthening social capacity were identified as well as ways to address
these challenges. It was concluded that there are general trends and
tendencies that need to be considered in risk management strategies, however
the different starting points of each case study community calls for
different means and approaches, as well as producing somewhat different
expected outcomes. 2013/10/18 - 19:03

Book Review: The Role of Ecosystems in Disaster Risk ReductionNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2553-2554, 2013Author(s): P. Tarolli 2013/10/18 - 19:03

Book Review: Natural Hazards in the Asia–Pacific Region: Recent Advances and Emerging ConceptsNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2551-2552, 2013Author(s): P. Tarolli 2013/10/18 - 19:03

Airborne geophysical survey of the catastrophic landslide at Stože, Log pod Mangrtom, as a test of an innovative approach for landslide mapping in steep alpine terrainsNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2543-2550, 2013Author(s): I. Baroň, R. Supper, E. Winkler, K. Motschka, A. Ahl, M. Čarman, and Š. KumeljAirborne geophysics is a promising method for investigating landslides. Here
we present a case study of multisensor airborne geophysical survey at the
catastrophic landslide Stože near Log pod Mangrtom in Slovenia, which
was conducted in the framework of the European FP7th Project "SafeLand".
Based on the survey itself and achieved results, we discuss applicability,
limits, and benefits and costs of the method for investigating landslides in
steep alpine terrains. Despite of several operational constraints, the
airborne electromagnetic survey of the area well presented the lithological
pattern and water saturation. The high resistivity regions mostly indicated
drained slope scree and landslide mass, drained and loosened material of the
moraine deposit in the tension zone of the landslide with present cracks and
cavities. The minima of the resistivity pattern were attributed to the
outcrop of marls rich in clay, to water-saturated moraine deposit above
impermeable marls in the tension zone, and to water-saturated porous
alluvial gravel and landslide scree along the Koritnica River. The magnetic
survey proved to be inapplicable for such a small and rough area. The
Potassium and Thorium maps, on the other hand, both well identified the
regions of tension inside the landslide zone, outcrops of marls and
dolomite, clay-rich colluvium, weathered zones along a regional tectonic
fault, and alluvial deposits and deposits of debris flows, and the minima of
the 137Cs clearly revealed the zones of material removal due to recent
mass movements. 2013/10/18 - 19:03

A shallow-flow model for the propagation of tsunamis over complex geometries and mobile bedsNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2533-2542, 2013Author(s): D. A. S. Conde, M. A. V. Baptista, C. Sousa Oliveira, and R. M. L. FerreiraA distinguishable feature of overland tsunami propagation is the
incorporation of solids within the flow column, either sediment from the
natural environment or remains from built infrastructure. This article
describes a 2DH (two-dimensional horizontal) mathematical model particularly
suited for tsunami propagation over complex and dynamic geometries, such as
river and estuarine mobile beds. The discretization scheme is based on a
finite-volume method using a flux-splitting technique featuring a reviewed
Roe–Riemann solver, with appropriate source-term formulations to ensure full
conservativeness. The model is validated with laboratory data and
paleo-tsunami evidence. As a forecasting application, it is applied to a
tsunami scenario in the Tagus estuary, an effort justified by the numerous
catastrophic tsunamis that are known to have struck this location over the
past two millennia. The obtained results show that, despite the significant
differences in Lisbon's layout and morphology, a 1755-like tsunami would
still inflict a devastating impact on this major city. 2013/10/16 - 16:52

Seismicity at the northeast edge of the Mexican Volcanic Belt (MVB) and activation of an undocumented fault: the Peñamiller earthquake sequence of 2010–2011, Querétaro, MexicoNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2521-2531, 2013Author(s): A. Clemente-Chavez, A. Figueroa-Soto, F. R. Zúñiga, M. Arroyo, M. Montiel, and O. ChavezThe town of Peñamiller in the state of Querétaro, Mexico, is located at
the northeast border of the seismogenic zone known as the Mexican Volcanic
Belt (MVB), which transects the central part of Mexico with an east–west
orientation. In the vicinity of this town, a sequence of small earthquakes occurred during
the end of 2010 and beginning of 2011. Seismicity in the continental regimen
of central Mexico is not too frequent; however, it is known that there are
precedents of large earthquakes (Mw magnitude greater than 6.0) occurring in
this zone. Three large earthquakes have occurred in the past 100 yr: the
19 November 1912 (MS = 7.0), the 3 January 1920 (MS = 6.4), and the 29 June 1935
(MS = 6.9) earthquakes. Prior to the instrumental period, the earthquake
of 11 February 1875, which took place near the city of Guadalajara, caused
widespread damage. The purpose of this article is to contribute to the
available seismic information of this region. This will help advance our
understanding of the tectonic situation of the central Mexico MVB

Twenty-four shallow earthquakes of the Peñamiller seismic sequence of
2011 were recorded by a temporary accelerograph network installed by the
Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro (UAQ). The data were analyzed in order to
determine the source locations and to estimate the source parameters. The
study was carried out through an inversion process and by spectral analysis.
The results show that the largest earthquake occurred on 8 February 2011 at
19:53:48.6 UTC, had a moment magnitude Mw = 3.5, and was located at
latitude 21.039° and longitude −99.752°, at a depth of
5.6 km. This location is less than 7 km away in a south-east direction from
downtown Peñamiller. The focal mechanisms are mostly normal faults with
small lateral components. These focal mechanisms are consistent with the
extensional regimen of the southern extension of the Basin and Range (BR)
province. The source area of the largest event was estimated to have a
radius of 0.5 km, which corresponds to a normal fault with azimuth of
174° and an almost pure dip slip. Peak ground acceleration (PGA)
was close to 100 cm s−2 in the horizontal direction. Shallow
earthquakes induced by crustal faulting present a potential seismic risk and
hazard within the MVB, considering the population growth. Thus, the necessity
to enrich seismic information in this zone is very important since the risk
at most urban sites in the region might even be greater than that posed by
subduction earthquakes. 2013/10/15 - 15:49

Anomalies of total column CO and O3 associated with great earthquakes in recent yearsNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2513-2519, 2013Author(s): Y. Cui, J. Du, D. Zhang, and Y. SunVariations of total column CO and O3 in the atmosphere
over the epicenter areas of 35 great earthquakes that occurred throughout
the world in recent years were studied based on the hyper-spectrum data from
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). It was found that anomalous increases
of CO and/or O3 concentrations occurred over the epicenter areas of 12
earthquakes among the 35 studied ones. However, increases in both CO and
O3 concentrations were found for 6 earthquakes. The O3 anomalies
appeared in the month when the earthquake occurred and lasted for a few
months, whereas CO anomalies occurred irregularly. The duration of CO and
O3 anomalies related to the earthquakes ranged from 1 to 6 months. The
anomalies of CO concentration related to the earthquake can be mainly
attributed to gas emission from the lithosphere and photochemical reaction,
while the anomalous increases in O3 concentration can be mainly due to
the transport of O3-enriched air and photochemical reaction. However,
more work needs to be done in order to understand the mechanism of
the CO and O3 anomalies further. 2013/10/09 - 17:31

Review Article: Economic evaluation of flood damage to agriculture – review and analysis of existing methodsNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2493-2512, 2013Author(s): P. Brémond, F. Grelot, and A.-L. AgenaisIn Europe, economic evaluation of flood management projects is increasingly
used to help decision making. At the same time, the management of flood risk
is shifting towards new concepts such as giving more room to water by
restoring floodplains. Agricultural areas are particularly targeted by
projects following those concepts since they are frequently located in
floodplain areas and since the potential damage to such areas is expected to
be lower than to cities or industries for example. Additional or avoided
damage to agriculture may have a major influence on decisions concerning
these projects and the economic evaluation of flood damage to agriculture is
thus an issue that needs to be tackled.

The question of flood damage to agriculture can be addressed in different
ways. This paper reviews and analyzes existing studies which have developed
or used damage functions for agriculture in the framework of an economic
appraisal of flood management projects. A conceptual framework of damage
categories is proposed for the agricultural sector. The damage categories
were used to structure the review. Then, a total of 42 studies are described,
with a detailed review of 26 of them, based on the following criteria: types
of damage considered, the influential flood parameters chosen, and monetized
damage indicators used.

The main recommendations resulting from this review are that even if existing
methods have already focused on damage to crops, still some improvement is
needed for crop damage functions. There is also a need to develop damage
functions for other agricultural damage categories, including farm buildings
and their contents. Finally, to cover all possible agricultural damage, and
in particular loss of activity, a farm scale approach needs to be used. 2013/10/09 - 17:31

Daily precipitation records over mainland Spain and the Balearic IslandsNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2483-2491, 2013Author(s): C. Ramis, V. Homar, A. Amengual, R. Romero, and S. AlonsoUnderstanding the spatial distribution of extreme precipitations is of major
interest in order to improve our knowledge of the climate of a region and its
relationship with society. These analyses inevitably require the use of
directly observed values to account for the actual extreme amounts rather
than analyzed gridded values. A study of daily rainfall extremes observed
over mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands is performed by using records
from 8135 rain gauge stations from the Spanish Weather Agency (AEMET).
Results show that the heaviest daily precipitations have been observed mainly
on the coastal Mediterranean zone from Gibraltar to the Pyrenees. In
particular, a record value of 817 mm was recorded in the Valencia region in
1987. The current map of daily records in Spain, which updates the pioneering
work of the Spanish meteorologist Font, shows similar distribution of extreme
events but with notably higher amounts. Generalized extreme values
distributions fit the Mediterranean and Atlantic rain gauge measurements and
shows the different characteristics of the extreme daily precipitations in
both regions. We identify the most extreme events (above 500 mm per day) and
provide a brief description of a typical meteorological situation in which
these damaging events occur. An analysis of the low-level circulation
patterns producing such extremes – by means of simple indices such as NAO,
WeMOi and IBEI – confirms the relevance of local flows in the generation of
either Mediterranean or Atlantic episodes. WeMOi, and even more IBEI, are
good discriminants of the region affected by the record precipitation event. 2013/10/09 - 17:31

Simulation systems for tsunami wave propagation forecasting within the French tsunami warning centerNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2465-2482, 2013Author(s): A. Gailler, H. Hébert, A. Loevenbruck, and B. HernandezA model-based tsunami prediction system has been developed as part of the
French Tsunami Warning Center (operational since 1 July 2012). It
involves a precomputed unit source functions database (i.e., a number of
tsunami model runs that are calculated ahead of time and stored). For the
Mediterranean basin, the faults of the unit functions are placed adjacent to
each other, following the discretization of the main seismogenic faults. An
automated composite scenarios calculation tool is implemented to allow the
simulation of any tsunami propagation scenario (i.e., of any seismic
moment). Uncertainty on the magnitude of the detected event and inaccuracy
of the epicenter location are taken into account in the composite scenarios
calculation. Together with this forecasting system, another operational tool
based on real time computing is implemented as part of the French Tsunami
Warning Center. This second tsunami simulation tool takes advantage of multiprocessor
approaches and more realistic seismological parameters, once the
focal mechanism is established. Three examples of historical earthquakes are
presented, providing warning refinement compared to the rough tsunami risk
map given by the model-based decision matrix. 2013/10/09 - 17:31

Are great Cascadia earthquakes recorded in the sedimentary records from small forearc lakes?Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2441-2463, 2013Author(s): A. E. Morey, C. Goldfinger, C. E. Briles, D. G. Gavin, D. Colombaroli, and J. E. KuslerHere we investigate sedimentary records from four small inland lakes located
in the southern Cascadia forearc region for evidence of earthquakes. Three of
these lakes are in the Klamath Mountains near the Oregon–California border,
and one is in the central Oregon Coast range. The sedimentary sequences
recovered from these lakes are composed of normal lake sediment interbedded
with disturbance event layers. The thickest of these layers are graded, and
appear to be turbidites or linked debrites (turbidites with a basal
debris-flow deposit), suggesting rapid deposition. Variations in particle
size and organic content of these layers are reflected in the density and
magnetic susceptibility data. The frequency and timing of these events, based
on radiocarbon ages from detrital organics, is similar to the offshore
seismogenic turbidite record from trench and slope basin cores along the
Cascadia margin. Stratigraphic correlation of these anomalous deposits based
on radiocarbon ages, down-core density, and magnetic susceptibility data
between lake and offshore records suggest synchronous triggering. The areal
extent and multiple depositional environments over which these events appear
to correlate suggest that these deposits were most likely caused by shaking
during great Cascadia earthquakes. 2013/10/09 - 17:31

Advanced interpretation of land subsidence by validating multi-interferometric SAR data: the case study of the Anthemountas basin (Northern Greece)Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2425-2440, 2013Author(s): F. Raspini, C. Loupasakis, D. Rozos, and S. MorettiThe potential of repeat-pass space borne SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar)
interferometry has been exploited to investigate spatial patterns of land
subsidence in the Anthemountas basin, in the northern part of Greece. The PSI
(Persistent Scatterer Interferometry) approach, based on the processing of
long series of SAR acquisitions, has been applied to forty-two images
acquired in 1995–2001 by ERS1/2 satellites. Interferometric results have
been analysed at a basin scale as support for land motion mapping and at
a local scale for the characterisation of ground motion events affecting the
village of Perea in the Thermaikos municipality and the "Macedonia"
international airport.

PSI results revealed a moderate subsidence phenomenon along the wider
coastal zone of Anthemountas basin corresponding to intense groundwater
extraction. Highest values, exceeding −20 mm yr−1, were measured in the
airport area where the thickest sequence of compressible Quaternary
sediments occurs. Intense subsidence has been detected also in the Perea
village (maximum deformation of −10 to −15 mm yr−1), where a series of
fractures, causing damages to both buildings and infrastructure, occurred in
2005–2006. 2013/10/09 - 17:31

Potential and limitations of risk scenario tools in volcanic areas through an example at Mount CameroonNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2409-2424, 2013Author(s): P. Gehl, C. Quinet, G. Le Cozannet, E. Kouokam, and P. ThierryThis paper presents an integrated approach to conduct a scenario-based
volcanic risk assessment on a variety of exposed assets, such as residential
buildings, cultivated areas, network infrastructures or individual strategic
buildings. The focus is put on the simulation of scenarios, based on
deterministic adverse event input, which are applied to the case study of an
effusive eruption on the Mount Cameroon volcano, resulting in the damage
estimation of the assets located in the area. The work is based on the recent
advances in the field of seismic risk. A software for systemic risk scenario
analysis developed within the FP7 project SYNER-G has been adapted to address
the issue of volcanic risk. Most significant improvements include the
addition of vulnerability models adapted to each kind of exposed element and
the possibility to quantify the successive potential damages inflicted by a
sequence of adverse events (e.g. lava flows, tephra fall, etc.). The use of
an object-oriented architecture gives the opportunity to model and compute
the physical damage of very disparate types of infrastructures under the same
framework. Finally, while the risk scenario approach is limited to the
assessment of the physical impact of adverse events, a specific focus on
strategic infrastructures and a dialogue with stakeholders helps in
evaluating the potential wider indirect consequences of an eruption. 2013/10/09 - 17:31

Sulfur dioxide emissions from Papandayan and Bromo, two Indonesian volcanoesNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2399-2407, 2013Author(s): P. Bani, Surono, M. Hendrasto, H. Gunawan, and S. PrimulyanaIndonesia hosts 79 active volcanoes, representing 14% of all active
volcanoes worldwide. However, little is known about their SO2
contribution into the atmosphere, due to isolation and access difficulties.
Existing SO2 emission budgets for the Indonesian archipelago are based
on extrapolations and inferences as there is a considerable lack of field
assessments of degassing. Here, we present the first SO2 flux
measurements using differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) for Papandayan and Bromo, two of the most active
volcanoes in Indonesia. Results indicate mean SO2 emission rates of
1.4 t d−1 from the fumarolic activity of Papandayan and more than
22–32 t d−1 of SO2 released by Bromo during a declining eruptive
phase. These DOAS results are very encouraging and pave the way for a better
evaluation of Indonesian volcanic emissions. 2013/10/03 - 03:59

On the puzzling feature of the silence of precursory electromagnetic emissionsNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2381-2397, 2013Author(s): K. Eftaxias, S. M. Potirakis, and T. ChelidzeIt has been suggested that fracture-induced MHz–kHz electromagnetic
emissions (EME), which emerge from a few days up to a few hours before the
main seismic shock occurrence permit a real-time monitoring of the damage
process during the last stages of earthquake preparation, as it happens at
the laboratory scale. Despite fairly abundant evidence, electromagnetic (EM)
precursors have not been adequately accepted as credible physical phenomena.
These negative views are enhanced by the fact that certain "puzzling
features" are repetitively observed in candidate fracture-induced
pre-seismic EME. More precisely, EM silence in all frequency bands appears
before the main seismic shock occurrence, as well as during the aftershock
period. Actually, the view that "acceptance of "precursive" EM signals
without convincing co-seismic signals should not be expected" seems to be
reasonable. In this work we focus on this point. We examine whether the
aforementioned features of EM silence are really puzzling ones or, instead,
reflect well-documented characteristic features of the fracture process, in
terms of universal structural patterns of the fracture process, recent
laboratory experiments, numerical and theoretical studies of fracture
dynamics, critical phenomena, percolation theory, and micromechanics of
granular materials. Our analysis shows that these features should not be
considered puzzling. 2013/09/28 - 00:06

Estimating soil suction from electrical resistivityNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2369-2379, 2013Author(s): E. Piegari and R. Di MaioSoil suction and resistivity strongly depend on the degree of soil saturation
and, therefore, both are used for estimating water content variations. The
main difference between them is that soil suction is measured using
tensiometers, which give point information, while resistivity is obtained by
tomography surveys, which provide distributions of resistivity values in
large volumes, although with less accuracy. In this paper, we have related
soil suction to electrical resistivity with the aim of obtaining information
about soil suction changes in large volumes, and not only for small areas
around soil suction probes. We derived analytical relationships between soil
matric suction and electrical resistivity by combining the empirical laws of
van Genuchten and Archie. The obtained relationships were used to evaluate
maps of soil suction values in different ashy layers originating in the
explosive activity of the Mt Somma-Vesuvius volcano (southern Italy). Our
findings provided a further example of the high potential of geophysical
methods in contributing to more effective monitoring of soil stress
conditions; this is of primary importance in areas where rainfall-induced
landslides occur periodically. 2013/09/26 - 19:12

Integrating spatial, temporal, and size probabilities for the annual landslide hazard maps in the Shihmen watershed, TaiwanNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2353-2367, 2013Author(s): C. Y. Wu and S. C. ChenLandslide spatial, temporal, and size probabilities were used to perform a
landslide hazard assessment in this study. Eleven intrinsic
geomorphological, and two extrinsic rainfall factors were evaluated as
landslide susceptibility related factors as they related to the success rate
curves, landslide ratio plots, frequency distributions of landslide and
non-landslide groups, as well as probability–probability plots. Data on
landslides caused by Typhoon Aere in the Shihmen watershed were selected to
train the susceptibility model. The landslide area probability, based on the
power law relationship between the landslide area and a noncumulative
number, was analyzed using the Pearson type 5 probability density function.
The exceedance probabilities of rainfall with various recurrence intervals,
including 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 yr, were used to determine
the temporal probabilities of the events. The study was conducted in the
Shihmen watershed, which has an area of 760 km2 and is one of the main
water sources for northern Taiwan. The validation result of Typhoon Krosa
demonstrated that this landslide hazard model could be used to predict the
landslide probabilities. The results suggested that integration of spatial,
area, and exceedance probabilities to estimate the annual probability of
each slope unit is feasible. The advantage of this annual landslide
probability model lies in its ability to estimate the annual landslide risk,
instead of a scenario-based risk. 2013/09/26 - 19:12

Seismic zones for Azores based on statistical criteriaNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2337-2351, 2013Author(s): M. C. M. Rodrigues and C. S. OliveiraThe objective of this paper is to define seismic zones in the Azores based
on statistical criteria. These seismic zones will likely be used in seismic
simulations of occurrences in the Azores Archipelago.

The data used in this work cover the time period from 1915 to 2011. The
Azores region was divided into 1° × 1° area units, for which the seismicity and the maximum magnitudes of
events were calculated.

The seismicity, the largest earthquakes recorded and the geological
characteristics of the region were used to group these area units because similar
seismic zones must delineate areas with homogeneous seismic characteristics.
We have identified seven seismic zones.

To verify that the defined areas differ statistically, we considered the
following dissimilarity measures (variables): time, size and seismic conditions – the number
of seismic events with specific characteristics.

Statistical tests, particularly goodness-of-fit tests, allowed us to
conclude that, considering these three variables, the seven earthquake zones
defined here are statistically distinct. 2013/09/24 - 20:58

Sub-ionospheric very low frequency perturbations associated with the 12 May 2008 M = 7.9 Wenchuan earthquakeNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2331-2336, 2013Author(s): A. K. Maurya, R. Singh, B. Veenadhari, S. Kumar, and A. K. SinghThe present study reports the VLF (very low frequency) sub-ionospheric perturbations observed on
transmitter JJI (22.1 kHz), Japan, received at the Indian low-latitude
station, Allahabad ( geographic lat. 25.41° N, long 81.93° E),
due to Wenchuan earthquake (EQ) that occurred on 12 May 2008 with the
magnitude 7.9 and at the depth of 19 km in Sichuan province of Southwest
China, located at 31.0° N, 103.4° E. The nighttime amplitude
fluctuation analysis gives a significant increase in fluctuation and
dispersion two days before EQ, when it crosses 2σ criterion.
However, there was no significant change observed in the amplitude trend.
The diurnal amplitude variation shows a significant increase in the
amplitude of JJI signal on 11 and 12 May 2008. The gravity wave channel and
changes in the electric field associated with this EQ seem to be the
potential factors of the observed nighttime amplitude fluctuation,
dispersion, and significant increase in the signal strength. 2013/09/24 - 20:58

The environmental impact of the Puyehue–Cordon Caulle 2011 volcanic eruption on Buenos AiresNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2319-2330, 2013Author(s): G. B. Raga, D. Baumgardner, A. G. Ulke, M. Torres Brizuela, and B. KucienskaOn 4 June 2011, the volcanic complex Puyehue–Cordon Caulle located in the
Chilean Andes erupted, producing a plume of gases and particles that
eventually circled the Southern Hemisphere, disrupting air travel and
depositing ash in large quantities. On eight occasions, the plume passed
over the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, leading local authorities to close
the two international airports.

The eruption occurred during an on-going field campaign when measurements of
the properties of atmospheric aerosol particles were being made in Buenos
Aires as part of a year-long study of the concentration and optical
properties of aerosol at one site in the city. The suite of instruments
deployed in Buenos Aires were not tailored to measurements of volcanic ash,
but were designed to characterize urban conditions. Nevertheless, these
measurements were analysed for periods when vertical profiles of aerosol
backscatter, made with a ceilometer, clearly showed the presence of the
volcano plume over the research site and resulted in airport closure.

Aerosol optical thickness derived from AERONET, MODIS and a ceilometer at
our research site, all show enhanced values clearly indicating that the
three platforms identified the volcanic plume simultaneously. However, a
quantitative comparison of the different estimates proves difficult,
suggesting large spatial and temporal variability of the plume.

Our results indicate that the number concentration of condensation nuclei
(CN), the mass concentration of particle-bound polycyclic aromatic
hydrocarbons (PPAH) and the light absorption coefficient exceeded the
average background values by more than one standard deviation during the
events of volcanic plume. The anomalous concentrations of CN suggest new
particle formation, presumably from the conversion of SO2, while the
anomalous concentrations of PPAH may come from the uptake of PAHs on the
plume particles or from chemical reactions on the surface of plume
particles. The anomalous absorption coefficients indicate that plume
particles may contain certain compounds that can absorb radiation at 550 nm.
Another possible explanation consistent with the observations is the
scavenging of black carbon from urban sources as the plume descends through
the boundary layer to the surface. In addition, the volcanic plume
influenced the local meteorology resulting in a decrease of the temperature
when compared to the average temperature during days with no plume present. 2013/09/23 - 17:23

Contribution of land use changes to future flood damage along the river Meuse in the Walloon regionNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2301-2318, 2013Author(s): A. Beckers, B. Dewals, S. Erpicum, S. Dujardin, S. Detrembleur, J. Teller, M. Pirotton, and P. ArchambeauManaging flood risk in Europe is a critical issue because climate change is
expected to increase flood hazard in many european countries. Beside climate
change, land use evolution is also a key factor influencing future flood
risk. The core contribution of this paper is a new methodology to model
residential land use evolution. Based on two climate scenarios ("dry" and
"wet"), the method is applied to study the evolution of flood damage by
2100 along the river Meuse. Nine urbanization scenarios were developed: three
of them assume a "current trend" land use evolution, leading to a
significant urban sprawl, while six others assume a dense urban development,
characterized by a higher density and a higher diversity of urban functions
in the urbanized areas. Using damage curves, the damage estimation was
performed by combining inundation maps for the present and future 100 yr
flood with present and future land use maps and specific prices. According to
the dry scenario, the flood discharge is expected not to increase. In this
case, land use changes increase flood damages by 1–40%, to
€334–462 million in 2100. In the wet scenario, the relative
increase in flood damage is 540–630%, corresponding to total
damages of €2.1–2.4 billion. In this extreme scenario, the
influence of climate on the overall damage is 3–8 times higher than the
effect of land use change. However, for seven municipalities along the river
Meuse, these two factors have a comparable influence. Consequently, in the
"wet" scenario and at the level of the whole Meuse valley in the Walloon
region, careful spatial planning would reduce the increase in flood damage by
no more than 11–23%; but, at the level of several municipalities, more
sustainable spatial planning would reduce future flood damage to a much
greater degree. 2013/09/23 - 17:23

Contribution of land use changes to future flood damage along the river Meuse in the Walloon regionNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2301-2318, 2013Author(s): A. Beckers, B. Dewals, S. Erpicum, S. Dujardin, S. Detrembleur, J. Teller, M. Pirotton, and P. ArchambeauManaging flood risk in Europe is a critical issue because climate change is
expected to increase flood hazard in many european countries. Beside climate
change, land use evolution is also a key factor influencing future flood
risk. The core contribution of this paper is a new methodology to model
residential land use evolution. Based on two climate scenarios ("dry" and
"wet"), the method is applied to study the evolution of flood damage by
2100 along the river Meuse. Nine urbanization scenarios were developed: three
of them assume a "current trend" land use evolution, leading to a
significant urban sprawl, while six others assume a dense urban development,
characterized by a higher density and a higher diversity of urban functions
in the urbanized areas. Using damage curves, the damage estimation was
performed by combining inundation maps for the present and future 100 yr
flood with present and future land use maps and specific prices. According to
the dry scenario, the flood discharge is expected not to increase. In this
case, land use changes increase flood damages by 1–40%, to
€334–462 million in 2100. In the wet scenario, the relative
increase in flood damage is 540–630%, corresponding to total
damages of €2.1–2.4 billion. In this extreme scenario, the
influence of climate on the overall damage is 3–8 times higher than the
effect of land use change. However, for seven municipalities along the river
Meuse, these two factors have a comparable influence. Consequently, in the
"wet" scenario and at the level of the whole Meuse valley in the Walloon
region, careful spatial planning would reduce the increase in flood damage by
no more than 11–23%; but, at the level of several municipalities, more
sustainable spatial planning would reduce future flood damage to a much
greater degree. 2013/09/23 - 17:23

Review Article: Potential geomorphic consequences of a future great (Mw = 8.0+) Alpine Fault earthquake, South Island, New ZealandNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 2279-2299, 2013Author(s): T. R. Robinson and T. R. H. DaviesThe Alpine Fault in New Zealand's South Island has not sustained a large
magnitude earthquake since ca. AD 1717. The time since this rupture is close
to the average inferred recurrence interval of the fault (~300 yr). The Alpine Fault is therefore expected to generate a large
magnitude earthquake in the near future. Previous ruptures of this fault are
inferred to have generated Mw = 8.0 or greater earthquakes and to
have resulted in, amongst other geomorphic hazards, large-scale landslides
and landslide dams throughout the Southern Alps. There is currently 85%
probability that the Alpine Fault will cause a Mw = 8.0+ earthquake within the next 100 yr. While the seismic hazard is fairly
well understood, that of the consequential geomorphic activity is less
well studied, and these consequences are explored herein. They are expected
to include landsliding, landslide damming, dam-break flooding, debris flows,
river aggradation, liquefaction, and landslide-generated lake/fiord tsunami.
Using evidence from previous events within New Zealand as well as analogous
international examples, we develop first-order estimates of the likely
magnitude and possible locations of the geomorphic effects associated with
earthquakes. Landsliding is expected to affect an area
> 30 000 km2 and involve > 1billion m3 of material.
Some tens of landslide dams are expected to occur in narrow, steep-sided
gorges in the affected region. Debris flows will be generated in the first
long-duration rainfall after the earthquake and will continue to occur for
several years as rainfall (re)mobilises landslide material. In total more
than 1000 debris flows are likely to be generated at some time after the
earthquake. Aggradation of up to 3 m will cover an area
> 125 km2 and is likely to occur on many West Coast alluvial fans
and floodplains. The impact of these effects will be felt across the entire
South Island and is likely to continue for several decades. 2013/09/23 - 17:23