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Kosmos
Astronomia Astrofizyka
Inne

Kultura
Sztuka dawna i współczesna, muzea i kolekcje

Metoda
Metodologia nauk, Matematyka, Filozofia, Miary i wagi, Pomiary

Materia
Substancje, reakcje, energia
Fizyka, chemia i inżynieria materiałowa

Człowiek
Antropologia kulturowa Socjologia Psychologia Zdrowie i medycyna

Wizje
Przewidywania Kosmologia Religie Ideologia Polityka

Ziemia
Geologia, geofizyka, geochemia, środowisko przyrodnicze

Życie
Biologia, biologia molekularna i genetyka

Cyberprzestrzeń
Technologia cyberprzestrzeni, cyberkultura, media i komunikacja

Działalność
Wiadomości | Gospodarka, biznes, zarządzanie, ekonomia

Technologie
Budownictwo, energetyka, transport, wytwarzanie, technologie informacyjne

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS)

Late Holocene landscape change history related to the Alpine Fault determined from drowned forests in Lake Poerua, Westland, New ZealandNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 2051-2064, 2012Author(s): R. M. Langridge, R. Basili, L. Basher, and A. P. WellsLake Poerua is a small, shallow lake that abuts the scarp of the Alpine
Fault on the West Coast of New Zealand's South Island. Radiocarbon dates
from drowned podocarp trees on the lake floor, a sediment core from a
rangefront alluvial fan, and living tree ring ages have been used to deduce
the late Holocene history of the lake. Remnant drowned stumps of kahikatea
(Dacrycarpus dacrydioides) at 1.7–1.9 m water depth yield a preferred time-of-death age at
1766–1807 AD, while a dryland podocarp and kahikatea stumps at 2.4–2.6 m yield
preferred time-of-death ages of ca. 1459–1626 AD. These age ranges are
matched to, but offset from, the timings of Alpine Fault rupture events at
ca. 1717 AD, and either ca. 1615 or 1430 AD. Alluvial fan detritus dated from
a core into the toe of a rangefront alluvial fan, at an equivalent depth to
the maximum depth of the modern lake (6.7 m), yields a calibrated age of AD
1223–1413. This age is similar to the timing of an earlier Alpine Fault
rupture event at ca. 1230 AD ± 50 yr. Kahikatea trees growing on
rangefront fans give ages of up to 270 yr, which is consistent with alluvial
fan aggradation following the 1717 AD earthquake. The elevation levels of
the lake and fan imply a causal and chronological link between lake-level
rise and Alpine Fault rupture. The results of this study suggest that the
growth of large, coalescing alluvial fans (Dry and Evans Creek fans)
originating from landslides within the rangefront of the Alpine Fault and
the rise in the level of Lake Poerua may occur within a decade or so of
large Alpine Fault earthquakes that rupture adjacent to this area. These
rises have in turn drowned lowland forests that fringed the lake.
Radiocarbon chronologies built using OxCal show that a series of massive
landscape changes beginning with fault rupture, followed by landsliding, fan
sedimentation and lake expansion. However, drowned Kahikatea trees may be
poor candidates for intimately dating these events, as they may be able to
tolerate water for several decades after metre-scale lake level rises have
occurred.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/2051/2012/ 2012/06/26 - 15:35

Influence of the soil-atmosphere exchange on the hydric profile induced in soil-structure systemNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 2039-2049, 2012Author(s): A. Al Qadad, I. Shahrour, and M. RouainiaSoil-atmosphere exchange leads to a moisture change in the soil. This can
cause major damage to engineering structures due to the soil expansion and
shrinkage. The soil-atmosphere exchange is related to several parameters,
in particular the soil characteristics and climate conditions. The presence of an engineering structure causes a variation of the hydraulic
profile in the soil, which can lead to heterogeneous soil movement and
consequently to structural damage. This paper presents a coupled numerical
model based on the consideration of both water flow in unsaturated soils and
soil-atmosphere exchange. After the validation of the model, the paper
presents its use for the analysis of the influence of the presence of
structures on moisture change induced under climatic conditions recorded
in a semi-arid region. Analysis shows that the presence of the structure
leads to important change in the moisture distribution, in particular in the
vicinity of the structure.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/2039/2012/ 2012/06/26 - 15:35

Estimation of seismic ground motions using deterministic approach for major cities of GujaratNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 2019-2037, 2012Author(s): J. Shukla and D. ChoudhuryA deterministic seismic hazard analysis has been carried out for various sites of
the major cities (Ahmedabad, Surat, Bhuj, Jamnagar and Junagadh) of the Gujarat
region in India to compute the seismic hazard exceeding a certain level in terms
of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and to estimate maximum possible PGA at
each site at bed rock level. The seismic sources in Gujarat are very
uncertain and recurrence intervals of regional large earthquakes are not
well defined. Because the instrumental records of India specifically in the
Gujarat region are far from being satisfactory for modeling the seismic
hazard using the probabilistic approach, an attempt has been made in this
study to accomplish it through the deterministic approach. In this regard,
all small and large faults of the Gujarat region were evaluated to
obtain major fault systems. The empirical relations suggested by earlier
researchers for the estimation of maximum magnitude of earthquake motion with
various properties of faults like length, surface area, slip rate, etc. have been
applied to those faults to obtain the maximum earthquake magnitude. For the
analysis, seven different ground motion attenuation relations (GMARs) of
strong ground motion have been utilized to calculate the maximum horizontal ground
accelerations for each major city of Gujarat. Epistemic uncertainties in the
hazard computations are accounted for within a logic-tree framework by
considering the controlling parameters like b-value, maximum magnitude and
ground motion attenuation relations (GMARs). The corresponding deterministic
spectra have been prepared for each major city for the 50th and 84th
percentiles of ground motion occurrence. These deterministic spectra are
further compared with the specified spectra of Indian design code
IS:1893-Part I (2002) to validate them for further practical use. Close
examination of the developed spectra reveals that the expected ground motion
values become high for the Kachchh region i.e. Bhuj city and moderate in the
Mainland Gujarat, i.e. cities of Surat and Ahmedabad. The seismic ground motion
level in the Saurashtra is moderate but marginally differs from that as
presently specified in IS:1893-Part I (2002). Based on the present study, the
recommended PGA values for the cities studied are 0.13 g, 0.15 g, 0.64 g,
0.14 g and 0.2 g for Ahmedabad city, Surat City, Bhuj City, Jamnagar City and
Junagadh city, respectively. The prepared spectra can be further used for
seismic resistant design of structures within the above major city
boundaries of Gujarat to quantify seismic loading on structures.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/2019/2012/ 2012/06/26 - 15:35

Statistical emulation of a tsunami model for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantificationNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 2003-2018, 2012Author(s): A. Sarri, S. Guillas, and F. DiasDue to the catastrophic consequences of tsunamis, early warnings need to be
issued quickly in order to mitigate the hazard. Additionally, there is a need
to represent the uncertainty in the predictions of tsunami characteristics
corresponding to the uncertain trigger features (e.g. either position, shape
and speed of a landslide, or sea floor deformation associated with an
earthquake). Unfortunately, computer models are expensive to run. This leads
to significant delays in predictions and makes the uncertainty quantification
impractical. Statistical emulators run almost instantaneously and may
represent well the outputs of the computer model. In this paper, we use the
outer product emulator to build a fast statistical surrogate of a
landslide-generated tsunami computer model. This Bayesian framework enables
us to build the emulator by combining prior knowledge of the computer model
properties with a few carefully chosen model evaluations. The good
performance of the emulator is validated using the leave-one-out method.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/2003/2012/ 2012/06/25 - 19:05

Quantifying human vulnerability in rural areas: case study of Tutova Hills (Eastern Romania)Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1987-2001, 2012Author(s): I. C. Stângă and A. GrozavuThis paper aims to assess the vulnerability at regional level, the model and
the proposed indicators being explicitly intended for an essentially rural
region, in this case–Tutova Hills (Eastern Romania). Five categories of
variables were taken into account to define the vulnerability components:
rural habitat, demographic features, agriculture, environmental quality and
emergency situations. For each one, five variables were analyzed and ranked
based on the level of determination or subordination. In order to ensure the
flexibility of the model and to avoid the criteria duplication in assessing
vulnerability, only a single indicator of each category was retained and
included in analysis: total number of inhabitants, dependency ratio, weight
of arable land on slope categories, weight of land under forestry and road
accessibility of villages. The selected indicators were mathematically
processed in order to maximize their relevance and to unitary express the
results in the spread 0–1. Also, values of each indicator were grouped
into four classes, corresponding to the level of vulnerability: low, medium,
high and very high. A general index was obtained through the integration of
vulnerability factors in an equation based on the geometric mean. Spatial
analysis was based on features of the MicroImages TNTmips 7.3. software,
which allow the vulnerability mapping. This approach argues and states that
vulnerability assessment through indicator-based methods can be made only
according to the level and scale of analysis and related to natural or human
conditions of a region.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1987/2012/ 2012/06/25 - 19:05

The educational and awareness purposes of the Paideia approach for heritage managementNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1983-1986, 2012Author(s): F. Carbone, L. Oosterbeek, and C. CostaThe need to raise awareness among the communities about the challenge of
resource use – and, more generally, about the principles of sustainability – is
the reason why the United Nations General Assembly proclaimed, in December 2002,
the United Nations Decade of Education for Sustainable Development,
2005–2014 (DESD). For operators and managers of cultural and natural
heritage, it represents a profound challenge to their ability to transmit
the content of scientific knowledge to the general public in order to
empower everyone on the preservation of cultural and natural resources, and
to raise awareness about the potential that mankind has at its disposal. In
this context, the application of the PAIDEIA APPROACH for the management of cultural
heritage is the key to the recovery of socio-economic values intrinsic to
these resources. This approach to management is based on the enhancement of
cultural (namely archaeological) and natural heritage for social benefit and
it involves the tourist trade as a vehicle of knowledge transmission,
intercultural dialogue and socio-economic sustainable development.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1983/2012/ 2012/06/25 - 19:05

Severe wind gust thresholds for Meteoalarm derived from uniform return periods in ECA&DNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1969-1981, 2012Author(s): A. Stepek, I. L. Wijnant, G. van der Schrier, E. J. M. van den Besselaar, and A. M. G. Klein TankIn this study we present an alternative wind gust warning guideline for
Meteoalarm, the severe weather warning website for Europe. There are
unrealistically large differences in levels and issuing frequencies of all
warning levels currently in use between neighbouring Meteoalarm countries.
This study provides a guide for the Meteoalarm community to review their wind
gust warning thresholds. A more uniform warning system is achieved by using
one pan-European return period per warning level. The associated return
values will be different throughout Europe because they depend on local
climate conditions, but they will not change abruptly at country borders as
is currently the case for the thresholds. As return values are a measure of
the possible danger of an event and its impact on society, they form an ideal
basis for a warning system. Validated wind gust measurements from the
European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D, http://www.ecad.eu)
were used to calculate return values of the annual maximum wind gust. The
current thresholds are compared with return values for 3 different return
periods: 10 times a year return periods for yellow warnings, 2 yr periods
for orange and 5 yr periods for red warnings. So far 10 countries provide
wind gust data to ECA&D. Due to the ECA&D completeness requirements and the
fact that some countries provided too few stations to be representative for
that country, medians of the return values of annual maximum wind gust could
be calculated for 6 of the 10 countries. Alternative guideline thresholds are
presented for Norway, Ireland, The Netherlands, Germany, the Czech Republic
and Spain and the need to distinguish between coastal, inland and mountainous
regions is demonstrated. The new thresholds based on uniform return periods
differ significantly from the current ones, particularly for coastal and
mountainous areas.

We are aware of other, sometimes binding factors (e.g. laws) that prevent
participating counties from implementing this climatology based warning
system.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1969/2012/ 2012/06/25 - 19:05

ICT approaches to integrating institutional and non-institutional data services for better understanding of hydro-meteorological phenomenaNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1961-1968, 2012Author(s): T. Bedrina, A. Parodi, A. Quarati, and A. ClematisIt is widely recognised that an effective exploitation of Information and
Communication Technologies (ICT) is an enabling factor to achieve major
advancements in Hydro-Meteorological Research (HMR). Recently, a
lot of attention has been devoted to the use of ICT in HMR activities, e.g.
in order to facilitate data exchange and integration, to improve
computational capabilities and consequently model resolution and quality.
Nowadays, ICT technologies have demonstrated that it is possible to extend
monitoring networks by integrating sensors and other sources of data managed
by volunteer's communities. These networks are constituted by peers that
span a wide portion of the territory in many countries. The peers are
"location aware" in the sense that they provide information strictly
related with their geospatial location. The coverage of these networks, in
general, is not uniform and the location of peers may follow random
distribution. The ICT features used to set up the network are lightweight
and user friendly, thus, permitting the peers to join the network without the
necessity of specialised ICT knowledge. In this perspective it is of increasing interest for HMR activities to elaborate of Personal Weather Station (PWS)
networks, capable to provide almost real-time, location aware, weather data.

Moreover, different big players of the web arena are now providing world-wide
backbones, suitable to present on detailed map location aware information,
obtained by mashing up data from different sources. This is the case, for
example, with Google Earth and Google Maps.

This paper presents the design of a mashup application aimed at aggregating,
refining and visualizing near real-time hydro-meteorological datasets. In
particular, we focused on the integration of instant precipitation depths,
registered either by widespread semi-professional weather stations and
official ones. This sort of information has high importance and usefulness
in decision support systems and Civil Protection applications. As a
significant case study, we analysed the rainfall data observed during the
severe flash-flood event of 4 November 2011 over Liguria region,
Italy. The joint use of official observation network with PWS networks and
meteorological radar allowed for the making of evident finger-like convection
structure.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1961/2012/ 2012/06/18 - 13:46

Using an integrated method to estimate watershed sediment yield during heavy rain period: a case study in Hualien County, TaiwanNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1949-1960, 2012Author(s): S. M. Hsu, H. Y. Wen, N. C. Chen, S. Y. Hsu, and S. Y. ChiA comprehensive approach estimating sediment yield from a watershed is
needed to develop better measures for mitigating sediment disasters and
assessing downstream impacts. In the present study, an attempt has been made
to develop an integrated method, considering sediment supplies associated
with soil erosion, shallow landslide and debris flow to estimate sediment
yield from a debris-flow-prone watershed on a storm event basis. The
integrated method is based on the HSPF and TRIGRS models for predicting soil
erosion and shallow landslide sediment yield, and the FLO-2D model for
calculating debris flow sediment yield. The proposed method was applied to
potential debris-flow watersheds located in the Sioulin Township of Hualien
County. The available data such as hourly rainfall data, historical
streamflow and sediment records as well as event-based landslide inventory
maps have been used for model calibration and validation. Results for
simulating sediment yield have been confirmed by comparisons of observed
data from several typhoon events. The verified method employed a 24-h
design hyetograph with the 100-yr return period to simulate sediment yield
within the study area. The results revealed that the influence of shallow
landslides on sediment supply as compared with soil erosion was significant.
The estimate of landslide transport capacity into a main channel indicated the
sediment delivery ratio on a typhoon event basis was approximately 38.4%.
In addition, a comparison of sediment yields computed from occurrence and
non-occurrence of debris flow scenarios showed that the sediment yield from
an occurrence condition was found to be increasing at about 14.2 times more than
estimated under a non-occurrence condition. This implied watershed sediment
hazard induced by debris flow may cause severe consequences.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1949/2012/ 2012/06/18 - 13:46

Logistic regression applied to natural hazards: rare event logistic regression with replicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1937-1947, 2012Author(s): M. Guns and V. VanackerStatistical analysis of natural hazards needs particular attention, as most
of these phenomena are rare events. This study shows that the ordinary rare
event logistic regression, as it is now commonly used in geomorphologic
studies, does not always lead to a robust detection of controlling factors, as
the results can be strongly sample-dependent. In this paper, we introduce
some concepts of Monte Carlo simulations in rare event logistic regression.
This technique, so-called rare event logistic regression with replications,
combines the strength of probabilistic and statistical methods, and allows
overcoming some of the limitations of previous developments through robust
variable selection. This technique was here developed for the analyses of
landslide controlling factors, but the concept is widely applicable for
statistical analyses of natural hazards.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1937/2012/ 2012/06/18 - 13:46

Development of tsunami early warning systems and future challengesNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1923-1935, 2012Author(s): J. Wächter, A. Babeyko, J. Fleischer, R. Häner, M. Hammitzsch, A. Kloth, and M. LendholtFostered by and embedded in the general development of information and
communications technology (ICT), the evolution of tsunami warning systems
(TWS) shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor
system architectures using additional sensors (e.g. tide gauges and buoys)
for the detection of tsunami waves in the ocean.

Currently, the beginning implementation of regional tsunami warning
infrastructures indicates a new phase in the development of TWS. A new
generation of TWS should not only be able to realise multi-sensor monitoring
for tsunami detection. Moreover, these systems have to be capable to form a
collaborative communication infrastructure of distributed tsunami warning
systems in order to implement regional, ocean-wide monitoring and warning
strategies.

In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early
Warning System (GITEWS) and in the EU-funded FP6 project Distant Early
Warning System (DEWS), a service platform for both sensor integration and
warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In
particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the
Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS)
have been successfully incorporated.

In the FP7 project Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in
Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), new developments in ICT (e.g. complex event
processing (CEP) and event-driven architecture (EDA)) are used to extend the
existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for
building distributed tsunami warning systems.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1923/2012/ 2012/06/18 - 13:46

Impact of heat and drought stress on arable crop production in BelgiumNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1911-1922, 2012Author(s): A. GobinModelling approaches are needed to accelerate understanding of adverse
weather impacts on crop performances and yields. The aim was to elicit
biometeorological conditions that affect Belgian arable crop yield,
commensurate with the scale of climatic impacts. The regional crop model
REGCROP (Gobin, 2010) enabled to examine changing weather patterns in
relation to the crop season and crop sensitive stages of six arable
crops: winter wheat, winter barley, winter rapeseed, potato, sugar beet and
maize. The sum of vapour pressure deficit during the growing season is the
single best predictor of arable yields, with R2 ranging from 0.55 for
sugar beet to 0.76 for wheat. Drought and heat stress, in particular during
the sensitive crop stages, occur at different times in the crop season
and significantly differ between two climatic periods, 1947–1987 and
1988–2008. Though average yields have risen steadily between 1947 and 2008,
there is no evidence that relative tolerance to stress has improved.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1911/2012/ 2012/06/18 - 13:46

Investigation of the temporal fluctuations of the 1960–2010 seismicity of CaucasusNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1905-1909, 2012Author(s): L. Telesca, T. Matcharashvili, and T. ChelidzeThe time-clustering behaviour of the seismicity of the Caucasus spanning
from 1960 to 2010 was investigated. The analysis was performed on the whole
and aftershock-depleted catalogues by means of the method of Allan Factor,
which permits the identification and quantification of time-clustering in
point processes. The whole sequence is featured by two scaling regimes with
the scaling exponent at intermediate timescales lower than that at high
timescales, and a crossover that could be probably linked with aftershock
time activiation. The aftershock-depleted sequence is characterized by
higher time-clustering degree and the presence of a periodicity probably
correlated with the cyclic earth surface load variations on regional and
local scales, e.g. with snow melting in Caucasian mountains and large Enguri
dam operations. The obtained results were corroborated by the application of
two surrogate methods: the random shuffling and the generation of Poissonian
sequences.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1905/2012/ 2012/06/16 - 20:26

Instability mechanisms affecting cultural heritage sites in the Maltese ArchipelagoNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1883-1903, 2012Author(s): G. Gigli, W. Frodella, F. Mugnai, D. Tapete, F. Cigna, R. Fanti, E. Intrieri, and L. LombardiThe superimposition of geological formations with marked contrast in
geotechnical properties presents one of the most critical environments for
slope instability due to the different response of the materials to the
applied disturbances. Moreover, the above-mentioned geological setting is
often associated with high risk conditions, since many isolated rock slabs
located at a higher altitude than the surrounding countryside have been
sites of historical towns or buildings.

The purpose of the present paper is to investigate the mechanisms
determining instability in rock slabs overlying a soft substratum, with
reference to two cultural heritage sites in Malta. Accurate investigations have been carried out to evaluate the geological,
geotechnical and geomechanical properties together with the main
geomorphological features of the soft clayey substratum and the overlying
limestone rock mass.

The main instability processes have thus been identified and investigated
through kinematic analyses and numerical modeling, combined with a 1992–2001
Persistent Scatterers monitoring of ground displacements. The study
constitutes the basis for the subsequent restoration works.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1883/2012/ 2012/06/14 - 19:42

Debris flood hazard documentation and mitigation on the Tilcara alluvial fan (Quebrada de Humahuaca, Jujuy province, North-West Argentina)Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1873-1882, 2012Author(s): G. Marcato, G. Bossi, F. Rivelli, and L. BorgattiFor some decades, mass wasting processes such as landslides and debris
floods have been threatening villages and transportation routes in the Rio Grande
Valley, named Quebrada de Humauhuaca. One of the most significant examples
is the urban area of Tilcara, built on a large alluvial fan. In recent
years, debris flood phenomena have been triggered in the tributary valley of the
Huasamayo Stream and reached the alluvial fan on a decadal basis.

In view of proper development of the area, hazard and risk assessment
together with risk mitigation strategies are of paramount importance. The
need is urgent also because the Quebrada de Humahuaca was recently included
in the UNESCO World Cultural Heritage. Therefore, the growing tourism
industry may lead to uncontrolled exploitation and urbanization of the
valley, with a consequent increase of the vulnerability of the elements
exposed to risk. In this context, structural and non structural mitigation
measures not only have to be based on the understanding of natural
processes, but also have to consider environmental and sociological factors
that could hinder the effectiveness of the countermeasure works.

The hydrogeological processes are described with reference to present-day
hazard and risk conditions. Considering the socio-economic context, some
possible interventions are outlined, which encompass budget constraints and
local practices. One viable solution would be to build a protecting dam
upstream of the fan apex and an artificial channel, in order to divert the
floodwaters in a gully that would then convey water and sediments into the
Rio Grande, some kilometers downstream of Tilcara. The proposed remedial
measures should employ easily available and relatively cheap technologies
and local workers, incorporating low environmental and visual impacts
issues, in order to ensure both the future conservation of the site and its
safe exploitation for inhabitants and tourists.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1873/2012/ 2012/06/14 - 19:42

Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System: a case study of the 2010 Kepulaunan Mentawai Earthquake and TsunamiNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1855-1871, 2012Author(s): E. Ulutas, A. Inan, and A. AnnunziatoThis study analyzes the response of the Global Disasters Alerts and
Coordination System (GDACS) in relation to a case study: the Kepulaunan
Mentawai earthquake and related tsunami, which occurred on 25 October 2010.
The GDACS, developed by the European Commission Joint Research Center,
combines existing web-based disaster information management systems with the
aim to alert the international community in case of major disasters. The
tsunami simulation system is an integral part of the GDACS. In more detail,
the study aims to assess the tsunami hazard on the Mentawai and Sumatra
coasts: the tsunami heights and arrival times have been estimated employing
three propagation models based on the long wave theory. The analysis was
performed in three stages: (1) pre-calculated simulations by using the
tsunami scenario database for that region, used by the GDACS system to
estimate the alert level; (2) near-real-time simulated tsunami forecasts,
automatically performed by the GDACS system whenever a new earthquake is
detected by the seismological data providers; and (3) post-event tsunami
calculations using GCMT (Global Centroid Moment Tensor) fault mechanism
solutions proposed by US Geological Survey (USGS) for this event. The
GDACS system estimates the alert level based on the first type of
calculations and on that basis sends alert messages to its users; the second
type of calculations is available within 30–40 min after the
notification of the event but does not change the estimated alert level. The
third type of calculations is performed to improve the initial estimations
and to have a better understanding of the extent of the possible damage. The
automatic alert level for the earthquake was given between Green and Orange
Alert, which, in the logic of GDACS, means no need or moderate need of
international humanitarian assistance; however, the earthquake generated 3 to 9 m tsunami run-up along southwestern coasts of the Pagai Islands where
431 people died. The post-event calculations indicated medium-high
humanitarian impacts.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1855/2012/ 2012/06/14 - 19:42

The influence of Alpine soil properties on shallow movement hazards, investigated through factor analysisNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1845-1854, 2012Author(s): S. Stanchi, M. Freppaz, and E. ZaniniMountain watersheds are particularly vulnerable to extreme meteorological events, such as high
intensity rainfall, and mountain soils often show pronounced fragility and low resilience due to
severe environmental conditions. Alpine soil vulnerability is partly intrinsic but in part
related to
climate change (mainly precipitation regimes), and is enhanced by the abandonment of rural
mountain areas that reduced the land maintenance actions traditionally carried out by farmers and
local populations in the past. Soil hazards are related to different processes such as water erosion,
loss of consistency, surface runoff and sediment transport, often occurring simultaneously and
interacting with each other. Therefore, the overall effects on soil are not easy to quantify as they
can be evaluated from different soil chemical and physical properties, referring to specific soil loss
phenomena such as soil erosion, soil liquefaction, loss of consistency etc. In this study, we focus
our attention on a mountain region in the NW Italian Alps (Valle d'Aosta), which suffered from
diffuse soil instability phenomena in recent years, as a consequence of extreme rainfall events
and general abandonment of the agricultural activities in marginal areas. The main effects were a
large number of shallow landislides involving limited soil depths (less than 1 m), affecting
considerable surfaces in the lower and middle part of the slopes. These events caused loss of
human lives in the year 2000 and therefore raised the attention on land maintenance issues.
Surface (topsoil: 0–20 cm) and subsurface (subsoil: 20–70 cm) samples were characterised
chemically and physically (pH, carbon and nitrogen contents, cation exchange capacity, texture,
aggregate stability, Atterberg limits etc.) and they showed very different soil properties. Topsoils
were characterised by better stability, structure, and consistency. The differences between the two
depths were potential trigger factors for shallow soil movements involving the upper soil horizons.
We assessed a great number of soil properties that are known to be related to vulnerability to the
main hazards present in the area. These properties were evaluated at the two depths and a factor
analysis was performed to simplify the dataset interpretation, and to hypothesise the most decisive
parameters that were potentially related to vulnerability. The factors (soil structure, aggregation,
consistency, texture and parent material, cation exchange complex and other chemical properties)
were a first step towards identifying soil quality indexes in the studied environment.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1845/2012/ 2012/06/14 - 19:42

Diffusion in periclase by combination of analytical formulas and thermodynamic modelNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1841-1844, 2012Author(s): E. DologlouAnalytical formulas for the temperature dependence of elastic constants of
MgO combined with a thermodynamic model, which interconnects bulk properties
to point defect parameters, can successfully reproduce the self diffusion
coefficients of periclase at temperatures representative of the Earth's
mantle conditions.

Although the calculated diffusion coefficients are estimated from a single
measurement and cover a broad range of values (i.e. five orders of
magnitude), an almost excellent agreement with the experimental ones is
observed. The slight discrepancy at the highest temperature lies at error
margins.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1841/2012/ 2012/06/07 - 16:20

Brief communication "Hurricane Irene: a wake-up call for New York City?"Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1837-1840, 2012Author(s): J. C. J. H. Aerts and W. J. W. BotzenThe weakening of Irene from a Category 3 hurricane to a tropical storm
resulted in less damage in New York City (NYC) than initially was
anticipated. It is widely recognized that the storm surge and associated
flooding could have been much more severe. In a recent study, we showed that
a direct hit to the city from a hurricane may expose an enormous number of
people to flooding. A major hurricane has the potential to cause large-scale
damage in NYC. The city's resilience to flooding can be increased by
improving and integrating flood insurance, flood zoning, and building code
policies.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1837/2012/ 2012/06/07 - 16:20

Rockfall hazard and risk assessment: an example from a high promontory at the historical site of Monemvasia, GreeceNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1823-1836, 2012Author(s): H. Saroglou, V. Marinos, P. Marinos, and G. TsiambaosThe paper presents the kinematics of rock instability of a high limestone
promontory, where the Monemvasia historical site is situated, in Peloponnese in
Southern Greece. The instability phenomena poses a significant threat to the
town located at the base of the slope. Rockfall episodes occurred in the
past due to the relaxation of the high cliff, whereas significant
undermining of the castle frontiers has been observed at the slope crest.

The predominant types of instability are of planar, wedge and toppling
failure of medium to large blocks. In order to investigate the existing
stability conditions and decide upon the protection measures, stability and
rockfall analyses were carried out for numerous slope sections under
different loading conditions and protection measures were suggested.

A rock-fall risk rating system is proposed, which is based on morphological
and structural criteria of the rock mass and on vulnerability and
consequences. The rating system is applied for individual sections along the
slope and a risk map was produced, which depicted areas having different
degree of risk against rockfall occurrences.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1823/2012/ 2012/06/02 - 20:34

Urban vulnerability and resilience within the context of climate changeNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1811-1821, 2012Author(s): E. Tromeur, R. Ménard, J.-B. Bailly, and C. SouliéNatural hazards, due to climate change, are particularly damaging in urban
areas because of interdependencies of their networks. So, urban resilience
has to face up to climate risks. The most impacting phenomenon is the urban
heat island (UHI) effect. The storage capacity of heat is depending on
shapes of buildings, public spaces, spatial organization, transport or even
industrial activities. So, adaptive strategies for improving urban climate
could be possible in different ways. In the framework of the French project
Resilis, this study characterises urban vulnerability and resilience in
terms of energy needs of buildings and outside urban comfort according to
the IPCC carbon dioxide emission scenarios B2 and A2 for the period
2050–2100 for 10 French cities. The evolutions of four climate indicators in
terms of heating and cooling needs and number of hours when the temperature
is above 28 °C are then obtained for each city to analyse climate risks
and their impacts in urban environment.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1811/2012/ 2012/05/31 - 23:32

Flood hazards and masonry constructions: a probabilistic framework for damage, risk and resilience at urban scaleNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1799-1809, 2012Author(s): A. Mebarki, N. Valencia, J. L. Salagnac, and B. BarrocaThis paper deals with the failure risk of masonry constructions under the
effect of floods. It is developed within a probabilistic framework, with loads
and resistances considered as random variables. Two complementary
approaches have been investigated for this purpose:

– a global approach based on combined effects of several governing parameters with individual weighted contribution (material quality and geometry, presence and distance between columns, beams, openings, resistance of the soil and its slope. . .),
– and a reliability method using the failure mechanism of masonry walls standing out-plane pressure.

The evolution of the probability of failure of masonry constructions
according to the flood water level is analysed.

The analysis of different failure probability scenarios for masonry walls
is conducted to calibrate the influence of each "vulnerability governing
parameter" in the global approach that is widely used in risk assessment at
the urban or regional scale.

The global methodology is implemented in a GIS that provides the spatial
distribution of damage risk for different flood scenarios. A real case is
considered for the simulations, i.e. Cheffes sur Sarthe (France), for which
the observed river discharge, the hydraulic load according to the Digital
Terrain Model, and the structural resistance are considered as random
variables. The damage probability values provided by both approaches are
compared. Discussions are also developed about reduction and mitigation of
the flood disaster at various scales (set of structures, city, region) as
well as resilience.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1799/2012/ 2012/05/31 - 23:32

Development of a management tool for reservoirs in Mediterranean environments based on uncertainty analysisNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1789-1797, 2012Author(s): R. Gómez-Beas, A. Moñino, and M. J. PoloIn compliance with the development of the Water Framework
Directive, there is a need for an integrated management of water
resources, which involves the elaboration of reservoir management
models. These models should include the operational and technical
aspects which allow us to forecast an optimal management in the
short term, besides the factors that may affect the volume of
water stored in the medium and long term. The climate fluctuations
of the water cycle that affect the reservoir watershed should be
considered, as well as the social and economic aspects of the
area. This paper shows the development of a management model for
Rules reservoir (southern Spain), through which the water supply
is regulated based on set criteria, in a sustainable way with
existing commitments downstream, with the supply capacity being
well established depending on demand, and the probability of
failure when the operating requirements are not fulfilled. The
results obtained allowed us: to find out the reservoir response at
different time scales, to introduce an uncertainty analysis and to
demonstrate the potential of the methodology proposed here as a
tool for decision making.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1789/2012/ 2012/05/31 - 23:32

Stability of a power law relation between characteristics of earthquakes and electric precursorsNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1783-1787, 2012Author(s): E. DologlouNew data were used to test the credibility of a previously reported power
law relation between the stress drop of earthquakes and the lead time of
precursory SES. Here, we found that the critical exponent of this power law
is very sensitive and remains stable around 0.33 only for appropriate sets of
data. This value is in full agreement with the reported one in literature
for critical phenomena. That means this power law is not an artifact, but
probably implies that real physical dynamic processes evolving to
criticality are present in the pre-focal area when the SES is emitted. An
attempt to advance the underlying physics of the interconnection of the
stress drop and the lead time of the precursory SES is still in progress.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1783/2012/ 2012/05/31 - 23:32

The spatial structure of European wind storms as characterized by bivariate extreme-value CopulasNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1769-1782, 2012Author(s): A. Bonazzi, S. Cusack, C. Mitas, and S. JewsonThe winds associated with extra-tropical cyclones are amongst the costliest
natural perils in Europe. Re/insurance companies typically have insured
exposure at multiple locations and hence the losses they incur from any
individual storm crucially depend on that storm's spatial structure.
Motivated by this, this study investigates the spatial structure of the most
extreme windstorms in Europe. The data consists of a carefully constructed
set of 135 of the most damaging storms in the period 1972–2010. Extreme
value copulas are applied to this data to investigate the spatial
dependencies of gusts.

The copula method is used to investigate three aspects of windstorms. First,
spatial maps of expected hazard damage between large cities and their
surrounding areas are presented. Second, we demonstrate a practical
application of the copula method to benchmark catalogues of artificial storms
for use in the re/insurance sector. Third, the copula-based method is used to
investigate the sensitivity of spatially aggregated damage to climate
variability. The copula method allows changes to be expressed in terms of
storm frequency, local intensity, and storm spatial structure and gives a
more detailed view of how climate variability may affect multi-location risk
in Europe.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1769/2012/ 2012/05/31 - 23:32

Identification of deep subaqueous co-seismic scarps through specific coeval sedimentation in Lesser Antilles: implication for seismic hazardNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1755-1767, 2012Author(s): C. Beck, J.-L. Reyss, F. Leclerc, E. Moreno, N. Feuillet, L. Barrier, F. Beauducel, G. Boudon, V. Clément, C. Deplus, N. Gallou, J.-F. Lebrun, A. Le Friant, A. Nercessian, M. Paterne, T. Pichot, and C. VidalDuring the GWADASEIS cruise (Lesser Antilles volcanic arc, February–March
2009) a very high resolution (VHR) seismic-reflection survey was performed
in order to constrain Late Quaternary to Present faulting. The profiles we
obtained evidence frequent "ponding" of reworked sediments in the deepest
areas, similar to the deposition of Mediterranean "homogenites". These
bodies are acoustically transparent (few ms t.w.t. thick) and are often
deposited on the hanging walls of dominantly normal faults, at the base of
scarps. Their thickness appears sufficient to compensate (i.e. bury) co-seismic
scarps between successive earthquakes, resulting in a flat and horizontal
sea floor through time. In a selected area (offshore Montserrat and Nevis
islands), piston coring (4 to 7 m long) was dedicated to a sedimentological
analysis of the most recent of these particular layers. It corresponds to
non-stratified homogenous calcareous silty sand (reworked calcareous
plankton and minor volcanoclastics). This layer can be up to 2 m thick,
and overlies fine-grained hemipelagites. The upper centimeters of the latter
represent the normal RedOx water/sediment interface. 210Pb and
137Cs activities lack in the massive sands, while a normal profile of
unsupported 210Pb decrease is observed in the hemipelagite below,
together with a 137Cs peak corresponding to the Atmospheric Nuclear
Experiments (1962). The RedOx level was thus capped by a recent
instantaneous major sedimentary event considered as post-1970 AD; candidate
seismic events to explain this sedimentary deposits are either the 16 March 1985 earthquake or the 8 October 1974 one
(Mw = 6.3 and Mw = 7.4, respectively). This leads to consider that the syntectonic sedimentation
in this area is not continuous but results from accumulation of thick
homogenites deposited after the earthquakes (as observed in the following
weeks after Haiti January 2010 event, McHugh et al., 2011). The existence of
such deposits suggests that, in the area of study, vertical throw likely
results from cumulated effects of separated earthquakes rather than from
aseismic creep. Examination of VHR profiles shows that all major co-seismic
offsets are recorded in the fault growth sequence and that co-seismic
offsets can be precisely estimated. By using a sedimentation rate deduced
from 210Pb decrease curve (0.5 mm yr−1) and taking into account minor
reworking events detected in cores, we show that the Redonda system may have
been responsible for five >M6 events during the last 34 000 yr.

The approach presented in this work differs from fault activity analyses
using displaced sets of isochronous surfaces and postulating co-seismic
offsets. Combining VHR seismic imagery and coring we can decipher co-seismic
vs. slow continuous displacement, and thus actually estimate the amplitude and
the time distribution of major co-seismic offsets.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1755/2012/ 2012/05/31 - 23:32

Magnetic storm free ULF analysis in relation with earthquakes in TaiwanNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1747-1754, 2012Author(s): S. Wen, C.-H. Chen, H.-Y. Yen, T.-K. Yeh, J.-Y. Liu, K. Hattori, H. Peng, C.-H. Wang, and T.-C. ShinDespite early optimism, pre-earthquake anomalous phenomena can be determined
by using enhanced amplitude at the ultra-low-frequency range from
geomagnetic data via the Fourier transform. In reality, accuracy of the
enhanced amplitude in relation to earthquakes (deduced from time-varied
geomagnetic data) would be damaged by magnetic storms and/or other unwanted
influences resulting from solar activity and/or variations in the ionosphere,
respectively. We substitute values of the cross correlation between
amplitudes, summarized from the earthquake-related (0.1–0.01 Hz) and the
comparable (0.01–0.001 Hz) frequency bands, for isolated amplitude
enhancements as indexes of determination associated with seismo-magnetic
anomalies to mitigate disturbance caused by magnetic storms. A station
located about 300 km away from the others is also taken into account to
further examine whether changes of the cross correlation values are caused
by seismo-magnetic anomalies limited within local regions or not. Analytical
results show that the values suddenly decrease near epicenters a few days
before and after 67% (= 6/9) of earthquakes (M > = 5) in Taiwan between September 2010
and March 2011. Seismo-magnetic signals determined by using the values
of cross correlation methods partially improve results yielded from the
Fourier transform alone and provide advantageous information of earthquake
locations.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1747/2012/ 2012/05/25 - 22:40

FIM FRAME: a method for assessing and improving emergency plans for floodsNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1731-1746, 2012Author(s): D. M. Lumbroso, M. Di Mauro, A. F. Tagg, F. Vinet, and K. StoneOver the past decade Europe has been hit by a number of severe flood events.
Reviews of recent large flood events in England and France have indicated
that there is room for improvement in the emergency planning for floods.
Methods that can be used for the systematic assessment and improvement of
emergency plans are extensively documented in readily available literature.
However, those that do exist are often limited to appraising the content of
the plans rather than the process that the plan should guide. This paper
describes research to develop a systematic method for assessing and
improving emergency plans, which is called the FIM FRAME method. The
development of the method was informed by research carried out with
stakeholders in France, the Netherlands and England, as well as an appraisal
of available tools that can be used to develop and improve plans, and an
analysis of a selection of flood emergency plans from the three countries.
One of the fundamental requirements of the FIM FRAME method was that it
should be able to be applied by the relevant stakeholders to a range of
emergency plans that mainly focus on flooding. The method comprises a series
of steps (known as Appraise, Tackle and Implement) that can assist
stakeholders with assessing and improving emergency plans. The method was
piloted in the three countries and then refined following feedback from end
users. This paper describes the development of the FIM FRAME method and its
application in three case studies affected by different types of floods.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1731/2012/ 2012/05/25 - 22:40

Assessing trends in insured losses from floods in Spain 1971–2008Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1723-1729, 2012Author(s): J. I. Barredo, D. Saurí, and M. C. LlasatEconomic impacts from floods have been increasing over recent decades, a
fact often attributed to a changing climate. On the other hand, there is now
a significant body of scientific scholarship all pointing towards increasing
concentrations and values of assets as the principle cause of the increasing
cost of natural disasters. This holds true for a variety of perils and
across different jurisdictions. With this in mind, this paper examines the
time history of insured losses from floods in Spain between 1971 and 2008.
It assesses whether any discernible residual signal remains after adjusting
the data for the increase in the number and value of insured assets over
this period of time. Data on insured losses from floods were sourced from
Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros (CCS). Although a public institution, CCS compensates homeowners for the
damage produced by floods, and thus plays a role similar to that of a
private insurance company. Insured losses were adjusted using two proxy
measures: first, changes in the total amount of annual surcharges (premiums)
paid by customers to CCS, and secondly, changes in the total value of
dwellings per year. The adjusted data reveals no significant trend over the
period 1971–2008 and serves again to confirm that at this juncture, societal
influences remain the prime factors driving insured and economic losses from
natural disasters.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1723/2012/ 2012/05/25 - 22:40

Reply to Masci's comment on "Ultra Low Frequency (ULF) European multi station magnetic field analysis before and during the 2009 earthquake at L'Aquila regarding regional geotechnical information" by Prattes et al. (2011)Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1721-1722, 2012Author(s): G. Prattes, K. Schwingenschuh, H. U. Eichelberger, W. Magnes, M. Boudjada, M. Stachel, M. Vellante, U. Villante, V. Wesztergom, and P. NenovskiNo abstract available.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1721/2012/ 2012/05/25 - 22:40

Comment on "Ultra Low Frequency (ULF) European multi station magnetic field analysis before and during the 2009 earthquake at L'Aquila regarding regional geotechnical information" by Prattes et al. (2011)Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1717-1719, 2012Author(s): F. MasciPrattes et al. (2011) report ULF magnetic anomalous signals claiming them to
be possibly precursor of the 6 April 2009 MW = 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake.
This comment casts doubts on the possibility that the observed magnetic
signatures could have a seismogenic origin by showing that these
pre-earthquake signals are actually part of normal global geomagnetic
activity.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1717/2012/ 2012/05/25 - 22:40

Recommendations for the user-specific enhancement of flood mapsNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1701-1716, 2012Author(s): V. Meyer, C. Kuhlicke, J. Luther, S. Fuchs, S. Priest, W. Dorner, K. Serrhini, J. Pardoe, S. McCarthy, J. Seidel, G. Palka, H. Unnerstall, C. Viavattene, and S. ScheuerThe European Union Floods Directive requires the establishment of flood maps for
high risk areas in all European member states by 2013. However, the current
practice of flood mapping in Europe still shows some deficits. Firstly,
flood maps are frequently seen as an information tool rather than a
communication tool. This means that, for example, local stocks of knowledge
are not incorporated. Secondly, the contents of flood maps often do not
match the requirements of the end-users. Finally, flood maps are often
designed and visualised in a way that cannot be easily understood by
residents at risk and/or that is not suitable for the respective needs of
public authorities in risk and event management. The RISK MAP project
examined how end-user participation in the mapping process may be used to
overcome these barriers and enhance the communicative power of flood maps,
fundamentally increasing their effectiveness.

Based on empirical findings from a participatory approach that incorporated
interviews, workshops and eye-tracking tests, conducted in five European
case studies, this paper outlines recommendations for user-specific
enhancements of flood maps. More specific, recommendations are given with
regard to (1) appropriate stakeholder participation processes, which allow
incorporating local knowledge and preferences, (2) the improvement of the
contents of flood maps by considering user-specific needs and (3) the
improvement of the visualisation of risk maps in order to produce
user-friendly and understandable risk maps for the user groups concerned.
Furthermore, "idealised" maps for different user groups are presented: for
strategic planning, emergency management and the public.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1701/2012/ 2012/05/25 - 22:40

Debris flow risk mitigation by the means of rigid and flexible barriers – experimental tests and impact analysisNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1693-1699, 2012Author(s): L. Canelli, A. M. Ferrero, M. Migliazza, and A. SegaliniThe impact of a debris flow on a structure can have disastrous effects
because of the enormous destructive potential of this type of phenomenon.
Although the introduction of risk mitigation structures such as the Sabo
Dam, the filter dam and more recently flexible barriers is usual, there are
very few methods that are universally recognized for the safe design of such
structures. This study presents the results of experimental tests, conducted
with the use of a specifically created flume, in order to obtain detailed
knowledge of the mechanical aspects, and to analyze the dynamics of the
impact of a debris flow on different types of structures. The analyses of
the tests, together with the calculation of the thrust caused by the flow,
have made it possible to analyze the dynamics of the impact, which has shown
differing effects, on the basis of the type of barrier that has been
installed.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1693/2012/ 2012/05/25 - 22:40

Temperature extremes in Europe: overview of their driving atmospheric patternsNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1671-1691, 2012Author(s): C. Andrade, S. M. Leite, and J. A. SantosAs temperature extremes have a deep impact on environment, hydrology,
agriculture, society and economy, the analysis of the mechanisms underlying
their occurrence, including their relationships with the large-scale
atmospheric circulation, is particularly pertinent and is discussed here for
Europe and in the period 1961–2010 (50 yr). For this aim, a canonical
correlation analysis, coupled with a principal component analysis (BPCCA),
is applied between the monthly mean sea level pressure fields, defined
within a large Euro-Atlantic sector, and the monthly occurrences of two
temperature extreme indices (TN10p – cold nights and TX90p – warm days) in
Europe. Each co-variability mode represents a large-scale forcing on the
occurrence of temperature extremes. North Atlantic Oscillation-like patterns
and strong anomalies in the atmospheric flow westwards of the British Isles
are leading couplings between large-scale atmospheric circulation and
winter, spring and autumn occurrences of both cold nights and warm days in
Europe. Although summer couplings depict lower coherence between warm and
cold events, important atmospheric anomalies are key driving mechanisms. For
a better characterization of the extremes, the main features of the
statistical distributions of the absolute minima (TNN) and maxima (TXX) are
also examined for each season. Furthermore, statistically significant
downward (upward) trends are detected in the cold night (warm day)
occurrences over the period 1961–2010 throughout Europe, particularly in
summer, which is in clear agreement with the overall warming.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1671/2012/ 2012/05/25 - 22:40

Application of Environmental Seismic Intensity scale (ESI 2007) to Krn Mountains 1998 Mw = 5.6 earthquake (NW Slovenia) with emphasis on rockfallsNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1659-1670, 2012Author(s): A. GosarThe 12 April 1998 Mw = 5.6 Krn Mountains earthquake with a maximum intensity of
VII–VIII on the EMS-98 scale caused extensive environmental effects in the
Julian Alps. The application of intensity scales based mainly on damage to
buildings was limited in the epicentral area, because it is a high mountain
area and thus very sparsely populated. On the other hand, the effects on the
natural environment were prominent and widespread. These facts and the
introduction of a new Environmental Seismic Intensity scale (ESI 2007)
motivated a research aimed to evaluate the applicability of ESI 2007 to this
event. All environmental effects were described, classified and evaluated by
a field survey, analysis of aerial images and analysis of macroseismic
questionnaires. These effects include rockfalls, landslides, secondary
ground cracks and hydrogeological effects. It was realized that only
rockfalls (78 were registered) are widespread enough to be used for
intensity assessment, together with the total size of affected area, which
is around 180 km2. Rockfalls were classified into five categories
according to their volume. The volumes of the two largest rockfalls were
quantitatively assessed by comparison of Digital Elevation Models to be
15 × 106 m3 and 3 × 106 m3. Distribution of very large,
large and medium size rockfalls has clearly defined an elliptical zone,
elongated parallel to the strike of the seismogenic fault, for which the
intensity VII–VIII was assessed. This isoseismal line was compared to the
tentative EMS-98 isoseism derived from damage-related macroseismic data. The
VII–VIII EMS-98 isoseism was defined by four points alone, but a similar
elongated shape was obtained. This isoseism is larger than the corresponding
ESI 2007 isoseism, but its size is strongly controlled by a single intensity
point lying quite far from others, at the location where local amplification
is likely.

The ESI 2007 scale has proved to be an effective tool for intensity
assessment in sparsely populated mountain regions not only for very strong,
but for moderate earthquakes as well. This study has shown that the
quantitative definition of rockfall size and frequency, which is diagnostic
for each intensity, is not very precise in ESI 2007, but this is
understandable since the rockfall size is related not only to the level of
shaking, but also depends highly on the vulnerability of rocky slopes.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1659/2012/ 2012/05/25 - 22:40

Drivers of flood risk change in residential areasNatural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1641-1657, 2012Author(s): F. Elmer, J. Hoymann, D. Düthmann, S. Vorogushyn, and H. KreibichThe observed increase of direct flood damage over the last decades may be
caused by changes in the meteorological drivers of floods, or by changing
land-use patterns and socio-economic developments. It is still widely
unknown to which extent these factors will contribute to future flood risk
changes.

We survey the change of flood risk in terms of expected annual damage for
residential buildings in the lower part of the Mulde River basin (Vereinigte
Mulde) between 1990 and 2020 in 10-yr time steps based on measurements and
model projections. For this purpose we consider the complete risk chain from
climate impact via hydrological and hydraulic modelling to damage and risk
estimation. We analyse what drives the changes in flood risk and quantify
the contributions of these drivers: flood hazard change due to climate
change, land-use change and changes in building values.

We estimate flood risk and building losses based on constant values and
based on effective (inflation adjusted) values separately. For constant
values, estimated building losses for the most extreme inundation scenario
amount to more than 360 million € for all time steps. Based on effective
values, damage estimates for the same inundation scenario decrease from 478 million € in 1990 to 361 million € in 2000 and 348 million € in 2020
(maximum land-use scenario). Using constant values, flood risk is 111%
(effective values: 146%) of the 2000 estimate in 1990 and 121%
(effective values: 115%) of the 2000 estimate for the maximum land-use
scenario in 2020. The quantification of driver contributions reveals that
land-use change in the form of urban sprawl in endangered areas is the main
driver of flood risk in the study area. Climate induced flood hazard change
is important but not a dominant factor of risk change in the study area.
With the historical exception of the economic effects in Eastern Germany
following the German reunification, value developments only have minor
influence on the development of flood risk.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1641/2012/ 2012/05/25 - 22:40

Review Article "Valuating the intangible effects of natural hazards – review and analysis of the costing methods"Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1633-1640, 2012Author(s): V. Markantonis, V. Meyer, and R. SchwarzeThe "intangible" or "non-market" effects are those costs of natural
hazards which are not, or at least not easily measurable in monetary terms,
as for example, impacts on health, cultural heritage or the environment. The
intangible effects are often not included in costs assessments of natural
hazards leading to an incomplete and biased cost assessment. However,
several methods exist which try to estimate these effects in a non-monetary
or monetary form. The objective of the present paper is to review and
evaluate methods for estimating the intangible effects of natural hazards,
specifically related to health and environmental effects. Existing methods
are analyzed and compared using various criteria, research gaps are
identified, application recommendations are provided, and valuation issues
that should be addressed by the scientific community are highlighted.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1633/2012/ 2012/05/25 - 22:40

The 13 November 2007 rock-fall at Viale Tiziano in Rome (Italy)Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1621-1632, 2012Author(s): M. Amanti, V. Chiessi, and P. M. GuarinoThe aim of the study was to perform a study on the western slope of the
Monti Parioli hill (Rome, Italy) affected by frequent rock-fall phenomena,
such as the one that occurred on 13 November 2007.

This goal was achieved by defining a detailed reconstruction of the
stratigraphical, geological and geomechanical structure of the slope and by
conducting a back-analysis of the rock-fall event using 2-D and 3-D modeling
tools.

The reconstruction of the slope's geological structure, characterized by the
presence of two anthropogenic cavity systems, and the characterisation of
geomechanical properties of outcropping terrains have been realized by means
of a detailed geological survey and a campaign of direct and indirect
investigations. Therefore, continuous rotary, coring boreholes up to 60 m,
collecting undisturbed samples for laboratory tests and performing
direct investigations such as SPTs and pressuremeter tests were carried out.
The indirect investigations included electrical tomography surveys, linear
surface seismic refraction surveys and seismic cross-hole tests.

Using the reconstructed geological-technical model, it was possible to define
the stability conditions of the slope at the time of collapse by using a
computational two-dimensional explicit finite difference program (FLAC) and
a 3-D finite element analysis (FEMLAB).

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1621/2012/ 2012/05/22 - 18:03

A study of meteorologically and seismically induced water level and water temperature oscillations in an estuary located on the west coast of India (Arabian Sea)Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1607-1620, 2012Author(s): P. Mehra, R. G. Prabhudesai, A. Joseph, V. Kumar, Y. Agarvadekar, R. Luis, and B. ViegasThe study examines the observed storm-generated sea-level oscillations (June
2007 and November 2009) along with the Sumatra geophysical tsunami
(September 2007), indicating similarities in the sea-level response in the
Mandovi estuary of Goa in the eastern Arabian Sea. Sea-level and surface
meteorological measurements collected during storms exhibit strong synoptic
disturbances leading to the coherent oscillations in the estuary with
significant energy bands centred at periods of 24, 45, and 80 min. In
particular, during the sporadic atmospheric event of June 2007, the
atmospheric pressure dipped by ~12 mb, the wind direction stabilized
to ~249° with peak wind speed up to 16 m s−1 and the positive
sea-level surge swelled up by ~40 cm. Also, the water temperature
cooled down by ~4.5 °C. Approximately 3 days prior to the 12
September 2007 Sumatra earthquake, the water temperature at Verem station
started exhibiting a distinctly stronger semidiurnal oscillation (with a
relatively larger variance of ~17.9 °C2 in contrast to a
lesser variance of ~12 °C2 during the preceding normal days)
and these well-defined oscillations continued to manifest for a week
after the earthquake. The pre-earthquake enhanced seawater temperature
oscillations observed at this tropical estuary provides an indication that
routine monitoring of seawater temperature from tropical estuaries with fine
temporal resolution may provide early information about impending coastal
earthquakes.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1607/2012/ 2012/05/22 - 18:03

Detecting the 11 March 2011 Tohoku tsunami arrival on sea-level records in the Pacific Ocean: application and performance of the Tsunami Early Detection Algorithm (TEDA)Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 1583-1606, 2012Author(s): L. Bressan and S. TintiReal-time detection of a tsunami on instrumental sea-level records is quite an important task for a
Tsunami Warning System (TWS), and in case of alert conditions for an ongoing tsunami it is often
performed by visual inspection in operational warning centres.
In this paper we stress the importance of automatic detection algorithms and apply the TEDA
(Tsunami Early Detection Algorithm) to identify tsunami arrivals of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami
in a real-time virtual exercise.
TEDA is designed to work at station level, that is on sea-level data of a single station,
and was calibrated on data from the Adak island, Alaska, USA, tide-gauge station.
Using the parameters' configuration devised for the Adak station, the TEDA has been applied
to 123 coastal sea-level records from the coasts of the Pacific Ocean, which enabled us
to evaluate the efficiency and sensitivity of the algorithm on a wide range of background conditions
and of signal-to-noise ratios.
The result is that TEDA is able to detect quickly the majority of the tsunami signals and
therefore proves to have the potential for being a valid tool in the operational TWS practice.

http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1583/2012/ 2012/05/22 - 18:03